Crypto Analysis | One Dump Away From Bear Market Teritory!

Good day Hiveians!

Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!

 

ALTs are not having a good time

Which is all the more remarkable since we are (and this sound strange to say) closing in on the end of the "bull market". Technically, there is still like around 1.4 years or so before this cycle ends - but the majority of it has already concluded. This is, of course not as dramatic as it sounds since historically price action for alts has occurred at the end of the cycle (around 1 year before). It has also always taken a couple of months for everything to pick up steam after the halving. But a thought is entering my mind for the first time this cycle. What if we completely underperform this time?

I am asking this question as someone who holds a relatively large amount of Hive. I have tried to diversify my portfolio in the last year, but Hive is still one of my biggest bags. Some of the projects I have mentioned in the past have outperformed Hive, like RUNE or ATOR. But even their charts still really haven't picked up a lot of steam (I guess a 6x or so is a lot better than a 0x 😶).

First, the BTC.D chart

As previously mentioned, we should now enter the "ALT phase" in which we first see a consolidation and then a big move. But the ratio is still above the red descending line which could indicate a bounce and a much larger move for BTC. We have to close under 53-54% for a confirmation to the downside. I will update this chart as soon as we see a move in either side (the boxes don't seem quite right atm):

Then there is Hive

The chart is once again looking dire. Price is still at the same level as when Hive first started to trade in March 2020! In a sense one could argue that there has been no value increase for all of Hive's existence... But, that is only if we measure value as the price of a coin. The true value added to this network has been nothing short of amazing. And I am sure everyone here has been felt cheated that it is not reflected in price.

The bottom blue "support" has been constantly shifting to the downside, essentially since 2022. Price is now under this line which means that a bigger drop could be incoming. Another 17% correction and we will made a new lower low!

The only hope I am having atm is that when we look at the last real impulse wave in 2021 everything happened rather quickly. Such a wave could still transpire in summer/fall of this year and we could "make it" - a similar movement in shape and form could bring price to $10. I guess we will soon find out.

 

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As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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