【Data】Is the legendary Christmas crash real? | 【数据】传说中的圣诞节暴跌是真的吗？

Previously, TVBee analyzed that the final approval deadline for Ark Fund's BTC spot ETF is January 10, and a decline might occur 10-20 days in advance. Netizens reminded that due to institutional window dressing around Christmas, there might be a drop during this period. There are also other netizens who suggest a significant crash during Christmas.

Regarding institutional window dressing, GPT explains — "In the United States, the term 'Window Dressing' is commonly used to describe the actions of financial institutions adjusting their investment portfolios at the end of a quarter or year (such as around Christmas). The purpose of this action is to make the portfolio look more attractive or in line with strategic goals in the quarterly or annual report."

If there's such an impact, institutions probably wouldn’t wait until Christmas day to sell BTC, and there might be certain behaviors throughout December. Previous years might also have been influenced.

Thus, TVBee compiled data from 2013 onwards.

In the past 10 years, the probability of a rise in December was 40%, with an average increase of 32.43% (ranking 4th in gains), and an average decrease of -13.92% (ranking 7th in losses) during declines. Among the 12 months, December is not the worst but does have some risk of decline.

In the same 10 years, observing the trend from December to January of the next year, the probability of the bottom occurring between December 15-19 is relatively high.

Let's look at the specific daily performance from December to January.

High probability of decrease, moderate drop:
December 21 (80% chance of decrease, average drop of -2.56%);
December 27 (70% chance of decrease, average drop of -2.37%);
January 17 (70% chance of decrease, average drop of -1.86%);
January 20 (70% chance of decrease, average drop of -1.29%);
January 23 (70% chance of decrease, average drop of -1.53%);
January 30 (70% chance of decrease, average drop of -2.71%);

No drop is typical, but significant when it does:
December 18 (40% chance of decrease, average drop of -6.46%);
December 20 (40% chance of decrease, average drop of -5.54%);
January 7 (40% chance of decrease, average drop of -6.57%);
January 14 (50% chance of decrease, average drop of -5.41%);
January 27 (40% chance of decrease, average drop of -5.87%);

High probability and significant decrease:
December 16 (54.55% chance of decrease, average drop of -6.19%);
January 11 (60% chance of decrease, average drop of -6.15%);
January 21 (60% chance of decrease, average drop of -6.21%).

Looking at historical data, there is no sign of a significant Christmas crash.
Caution may be warranted before Christmas.

之前小蜜蜂分析方舟基金的BTC现货ETF的最后审批截止时间是1月10，会提前10-20天下跌。网友提示小蜜蜂，因为圣诞节机构清账，所以圣诞节会下跌。也有其他网友提出圣诞节大暴跌的说法。

关于机构清账，GPT的解释是——"在美国，术语“清账”（Window Dressing）通常用于描述金融机构在季度末或年末（如圣诞节前后）对其投资组合进行调整的行为。这种行为的目的是使投资组合在季度或年度报告中看起来更加吸引人或更加符合策略目标。"

如果有这样的影响，机构应该不会在圣诞这一天才卖出BTC，整个12月可能有一定的行为。以往年份可能也会有一定的影响。

于是小蜜蜂统计了2013年以后的数据。

10年里，12月上涨的概率为40%，上涨时的平均涨幅为32.43%(涨幅排名第4)，下跌时的平均跌幅为-13.92(跌幅榜排名第7)%。12个月份里，12表现并不是最差的，但存在一定的下跌风险。

10年里，观察12月到次年1月的趋势，这2个月的底部在12月15~19日确实出现的概率比较高。

再来看一下12月-1月每天的具体表现。

下跌概率高、跌幅一般：
12月21日(下跌的概80%，平均跌幅-2.56%);
12月27日(下跌的概70%，平均跌幅-2.37%);
1月17日(下跌的概70%，平均跌幅-1.86%);
1月20日(下跌的概70%，平均跌幅-1.29%);
1月23日(下跌的概70%，平均跌幅-1.53%);
1月30日(下跌的概70%，平均跌幅-2.71%);

不跌则已、一跌惊人，下趺时、平均跌幅大：
12月18日(下跌的概率40%，平均跌幅-6.46%);
12月20日(下跌的概率40%，平均跌幅-5.54%);
1月7日(下跌的概率40%，平均跌幅-6.57%);
1月14日(下跌的概率50%，平均跌幅-5.41%);
1月27日(下跌的概率40%，平均跌幅-5.87%);

下跌概率较高、同时跌幅大：
12月16日(下跌概率54.55%、平均跌幅-6.19%);
1月11日（下跌概率60%、平均跌幅-6.15%）;
1月21日（下跌概率60%、平均跌幅-6.21%）。

看历史数据，并没有圣诞节大暴跌的迹象。
圣诞节前可能要小心。