It is so tough to tell at this point! I tend to miss the gains above ATH as I am more of a swing trader than a leverage player. I like to buy when everyone else is selling and vice versa. Much slower and boring compared to the leverage game!

I take such a basic view and like to watch the STOCH and MACD for oversold and overbought for the swings. If I were to wager a guess, (from the basic premise that crypto goes / then \ then / again) being over bought on the weekly chart more or less since May, I would say your shorts are the good play. This is in the medium term though and you are probably looking more short term in leverage plays. So it doesn't account for that.

Much more risk averse and pedestrian in my approach but I am taking a little profit now and carefully watching Eth as sentiment seems to be rising. No buying in for me til Oct or so if we get a macd cross down and a good bounce on the stoch at the bottom.

Who knows? Exciting times!