Bitcoin's ownership distirbution is quite top heavy, so many retail investors having to dump in the worsening macroeconomic climate may not actually be a huge concern as you say. It's an oft-repeated talking point that many are just going to have to dump when they lose their jobs triggering a collapse. But if the likes of JP Morgan are lining up to serve customers with massive bags, then there may not be too much reason to worry. On the contrary, investing in Bitcoin may make sense for the retail investor as well. Of course, too leveraged a position may be dangerous because you never know when you have to turn to your savings and because Bitcoin is very volatile. But your line of reasoning makes sense.
The question is choosing the right points of entry, then. Did we already see a post halvening miner capitulation and sell-off event? You said earlier that the capitulation event of mid-March may already have shaken out many of the weaker miners. What do you think?
Great comment as always! In response to your question at the end there...I'm still expecting at least a small dip in price I guess, whether or not that's related to miner capitulation. Would be shocked if a portion of miners didn't quit the game post-halving. But ready to buy the dip when that happens!
I'm anticipating a dip, too. There is a massive multi-year wedge forming the upper edge of which runs from the ATH through the June 2019 and February 2020 tops and now the price seems to be right on the line and meeting heavy resistance. This is what I'm referring to:
It may touch the lower edge. But if nothing catastrophic happens, I don't think BTC will go lower than about $8000 and we may have seen that already.
I think this may be the time when the long march upwards towards a new ATH begins. Dollar cost average. Set aside what you can afford each week and buy BTC. If everything pans out, late 2021 is the time to get off the train to ride out the next bear market.