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RE: Epidemics Past and Present: Polio and COVID-19

in StemSocial4 years ago

I think it's premature to say we have a vaccine already. The sources cited are not asserting the efficacy of BCG. Indeed, the Israeli study showed no efficacy. The Lancet study is still pondering the possible utility of BCG vaccination, and the article in Scientist describes studies going forward with guarded optimism. I am no friend of Big Pharma, and although I applaud the development of life-protecting vaccines (ex: smallpox, polio, diphtheria, etc.) I also am aware that there are risks with every medical intervention. There are also sometimes mixed motives (and often misrepresentation of safety/efficacy) in authorities that carry out vaccination campaigns. Still, I want vaccine development for COVID to go forward. I am not so angry at Big Pharma that I am willing to risk losing lives to cut their profit margin. Perhaps what might be more reasonable is to address the obscene profit margins, across the board, in healthcare.

Israel:
There was no statistically significant difference in the proportion of positive test results in the BCG-vaccinated group (361 [11.7%]) vs the unvaccinated group (299 [10.4%]; difference, 1.3%; 95% CI, −0.3% to 2.9%; P = .09) or in positivity rates per 100 000 (121 in vaccinated group vs 100 in unvaccinated group; difference, 21 per 100 000; 95% CI, −10 to 50 per 100 000; P = .15). There was 1 case of severe disease (mechanical ventilation or intensive care unit admission) in each group, and no deaths were reported

Lancet:
Second, whether BCG will be effective remains unknown: findings from the ecological studies suggesting less COVID-19 in countries with routine BCG immunisation are weak evidence because they are based on population rather than individual data and are prone to confounding.

Also, it is unlikely that a BCG vaccine given decades ago in childhood will ameliorate COVID-19 now. One reason for this is that the beneficial off-target effects of the BCG vaccine might be altered by subsequent administration of a different vaccine.

Third, if the BCG vaccine is not effective against COVID-19, BCG vaccination could engender a false sense of security. Fourth, careful safety monitoring in randomised trials is needed to guard against the remote possibility that up-regulation of immunity by BCG will exacerbate COVID-19 in a minority of patients with severe disease.

From the Scientist
Trials are kicking off in the Netherlands, Greece, Australia, Denmark, France, Germany, and the US, says Netea...in an Australian trial “we will measure whether those who get the vaccine get less COVID-19, and if they do get it, if they are unwell for less time or have less severe symptoms,”

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Of course it is... after all, there isn't enough data to conclude anything.