I just want to remind everyone that has an opinion on the HBD APR reduction, coming from some witnesses, to vote with their wallets and make their voice heard.
Ive listened into the CTT podcast last night. It was a shame I wasnt able to speak considering I was raising my hand for about an hour.lol.
Some information presented during the show from some guests was unsubstantiated and in my opinion simply reflective of fear induced reactive behavior.
- Claim that high APR didnt attract any new investors is not backed up by anything and is made too easily. If you look at Dalz stats you see a consistent increase of HBD in savings from 1 million to 8 million and increase in accounts putting HBD in savings from hundreds to 14 thousand. The HBD APR of 20% didnt make the amount of HBD in savings 8x in 2 years.
That HBD came from somewhere and for sure it didnt come from people selling their HP. You can check that easily, as well, looking at the Arcange stats tracking HP. No significant drop in HP and a consistent increase over time is seen.
Did it all come from Hive users? If you want to claim that, id ask you why is the increase consistent over time. Hive users for sure would be aware of the high APR a long time ago.
The conclusion that HBD isnt bringing people in is not valid in any way whatsoever.
- There is a claim that there is no risk associated with holding HBD in savings. This clearly is representative of what I would call "APR envy". It is not a coincidence that the drop in APR was proposed after this latest dump in the market.
Some HP holders saw HBD holders not suffering and were not happy with it.
Starting making claims:
Well, there is no risk associated with HBD, its 0 effort, etc.
What is the opportunity cost of holding HBD? What happens if Hive goes to 1 USD and youre invested in HBD? A product with 0 upside. No risk you say? Well, maybe 0 risk for those in this market looking for 20% a year. And thats a grand total of probably 0 people.
Its at that point when some of those complaining about high HBD APR would give 20%, 30% even.
When markets go down, when prices fall, you want to still keep that capital inside Hive. HBD helps with that, high APR (sustainable) helps even more.
When prices go up high APR is just a marketing tool. Nothing else.
So yeah, people got this completely ass backwards.
20% right now doesnt seem unsustainable and it very much seems to have attracted users. No valid claim otherwise can be made unless someone presents me some data I havent seen yet.
The only valid objection Ive seen is that 20% APR is seen as a scam. And that very much might be true.
Which is why I will accept the APR being dropped to 19.9% APR.
Stay cool. 😉
100% this.
If anything, the stats seem to present the opposite.
Sure.
@lordbutterfly you are smart so I will keep it short.
If I
/Wewill change my/ourhp by powering down to hbd, some beasts will take over governance. They will pass all kinds of shit, including inflation and interest rates.They are good people cause they are friends of my brother, sigh.
Some things you don't mention in your post I'd wanna shed some light on, while money has come in through HBD to stay in HBD, even ignoring the fact that some of it may have come from selling hive directly, is it enough to justify 20%? 20% is long term unsustainable, we've seen the charts of compound interest and the long term I'm talking about is in 10+ years, around when Hive is going to start dropping to 0.5% yearly emission.
While there's definitely been an increase in HBD buying from outsiders and being introduced to the rest of the ecosystem, I thought it wasn't enough in my opinion to justify 20% and we've been signaling 15% for almost a year now since there was close to no marketing done and the only random time there was some noise about it on web2 was by some random guy calling it a scam and the community putting him on a pedestal.
Why not settle for a lower % for longer instead?
Either way, I liked some of the discussions in the spaces last night and I'd be open to some kind of bond/lockup feature to at least mimic HP in some kind of way if you wanna take advantage of this high APR, else HP is just not enticing enough and has too many disadvantages compared to HBD imo.
I didnt ignore it. I cover it in the part where prices are falling and a choice to keep it in HBD is superior to it leaving the ecosystem and going to Tether or Busd. HP obviously isnt where its coming from as HP is increasing consistently over time without any major drops that could be attributed to choosing HBD savings over HP.
10 years is far too long to determine that HBD at 20% APR is unsustainable. Ive seen @edicted do some math and a drop by 5% in APR doesnt affect sustainability in any significant manner.
If anything it increases the danger of millions of HBD leaving savings, it being dumped on the market, HBD liquidity being low and unable to absorb it, the price will go down, HBD will depeg, start to be converted into hive and Hive sold off.
What happens to the price of Hive then. Hive with 100million MC, 700k in daily volume, with millions potentially leaving. It will not look good.
That is the danger a significant drop in APR can potentially bring forth.
That danger is far more real to me than whatever 5% drop in APR will do, or not do for "sustainability." Which again, ive yet to see anyone argue and show data that it indeed isnt sustainable till the next bull market in a year or two.
How do you explain the consistent increase in savings then? The stats would indicate otherwise. And 8mil on a small marketcap isnt nothing.
Because of the reasons listed, the dangers presented and not seeing any reason why its not sustainable. All i see is APR envy because of the dump and a wrong consideration of when to increase APR and when to lower it. Id rather lower it in the bull market, instead of increase it. Increasing it then makes 0 sense to me.
HP is locked for too long. You can entice investment in HP far more with lowering to 1 month powerdown (or any other solution) than you will with cutting HBD APR.
I can tell you that even with 0% APR, right now, I would not put my HBD into HP. No chance of that. Two different products and negative encouragement (a poor one at that) will not lead to more HP being bought. Im almost 100% certain of that.
No I was ignoring it with my following statement, not saying you did.
What do you mean with obviously? It all depends on if the hive is converted or traded, the former removes hive from circulation the latter may not. I haven't checked the data on that in a while, @dalz probably has it.
Mate, we both know close to no one knows Hive/HBD, it's not a stretch to say in and of itself it didn't do much marketing to bring in the value some people, myself included, maybe expected an insanely high rate of 20% was supposed to bring. Be it cause of luna reputation, be it cause Justin Sun is the only other one who bothered offering such returns or due to lack of marketing and any funds used towards that hoping we'd yet again just rely on word of mouth/web2. It's not like we have random accounts with hundreds of thousands of hbd we can't know who they are/have an idea. @mika is probably the only one I have no idea of and his account is from 2016.
I don't disagree that some of that HBD may go away if we lower the APR but it has to be done at some point anyway and my opinion was it should've happened a long time ago.
Actually nvm seems the Mika account has gotten rid of most of its HBD. Like there's obviously been some effects of the APR, no one can deny it with the increase in HBD liquidity and in savings, it's just that I don't think it's enough to justify keeping it this high for this long, the lack of any noise/attention/proof of unknown accounts coming into the ecosystem and being introduced to other things.
Mmmmmm i am agree to Sell my hbd AND get hive AND wait because Is More simple to get apr of 10 o 20x in the future with hive thank hbd, imagine hive at $3.00 it Is a Lot for me, then for this reazon get now 3.2 hives for each HBD it Is a great options think un the future, i Guess, maybe i am going to the hell, specially when you play in financial markets.
Best regard.
will people who want 20% APR change their HBD and power it up to vote for witnesses who signal 20%? 😂
i think not a lot will change with 12-15-20% so i am kinda fine with any of that.
haha. That would be a funny one.
Kind of hard to bring new investors in when there's no marketing. So, if they are telling the truth, then it's the fault of those who raised it to compete, but didn't back it up with a marketing push to get the info out there.
To use the excuse that it isn't working is a joke, because it was never set up to work in the first place. Now that @leofinance is going to start a huge marketing push, it is the wrong time to make any changes in features that can be used to bring in more capital.
I'm in a no man's land where I agree with both positions, but reading this post I realise that perhaps I've been a victim of APR envy as you say. Now is definitely the worst possible time to change the APR at Savings, that's undeniable.
I've been signing a 15% apr on my witness for a few days now, after some reflection and after reading some opinions like yours makes me reconsider raising it again.
thanks for feeding the grey matter
Gay
👊
Sure. As long as one person shows up for the HBD, what you said is true.
I think its underperforming when compared to its potential. I think those wanting this 20% underperformed when it comes to getting the word out, with some even acting more like a deterrent when talking about it (posts sounding too good to be true produced by amateurs combined with comment sections resembling paid testimonials shared outside).
So what are we doing now? Once again focusing internally. Pressure everyone to keep something the same way. Everyone gets their way and goes back to underperforming?
You know what I like about a rate that has room to move up? People hold thinking it might happen. I see potential in a flexible rate. 20% seems like the top. I'm sure real investors would do their research knowing the rate could drop and maybe that was the deterrent, rather than a promotion. The mind's a mysterious thing.
I would like it to be a success. I won't be juggling my votes around though. Not interested in picking a team or being swayed, and I'm content with a flexible rate.
It is very important to address the claim made.
All of it should be viewed in the context of the wider market and sentiment tied into APR offering stablecoins. In that context I dont think its underperforming. To claim that you need a baseline of expectation. That varies drastically between people.
What was the expectation? Billions of incoming capital? I think thats unreasonable? Millions, that is reasonable and I think that has happened. The convo with Acid above goes in more depth.
If there is any at all overall positive impact, in a bear market, with this sentiment present in regards to Luna etc. then this is a win.
Any kind of win is a win. Choosing a "lose" because the win isnt as "big" as some expect is foolish in my opinion.
I'm listening, and thanks in advance for the time and energy you're putting into this. I'll read the other conversation as well. Been reading a lot lately.
I'm sure we all have our standards. I set my own bar. It's not for everyone and that's fine. I think it underperformed which means there's still potential and that's a good thing. Not saying it underperformed so therefore it should go away. There's still potential for it to perform even better with a lower rate as well. It's not impossible.
I agree with some elements of the aligning incentives argument. Without getting into the gory technical details, picture HBD holders growing at much faster rate flipping the switch and injecting themselves into governance. Perhaps I can see another puppet show down the road like the one that brought us here. I don't see too many bringing that up but it's what I'm looking at, rather than something like APR envy. In that worst case scenario Hive is paying bad actors to take over. Damn. That would suck.
I mean, well, those that get more HP should affect governance. How they get it, if its making better choices in the market, it is how it should be.
If they buy "cumrocketshibainuharrybitcoinpotterethereum" and it pumps, then sell it for HP to affect governance, who am I to say they cant or its bad. :)
Why is it bad if someone does that with HBD?
APR envy and envy of someone else making better investment choices doesnt make sense to me.
Just make better investment choices. lol
Is HBD a better investment choice? Who knows. If Hive hits 1 USD, and you have your money in HBD it definitively isnt.
I get that, and expected you would counter it in that fashion.
agree 100%
It seems to me that if HIVE were to go to $1, you're not missing out by holding HBD. You simply convert HIVE to HBD and wait for HIVE to drop again. Then you can buy back HP or let your gains earn 20%. We don't lose either way.
As for lowering interest, I think you are correct. People are tossing out these statements with nothing to back up their claim. If 20% were such a problem, we'd be bumping into the haircut rule more frequently. I can't even remember when the last time was that the blockchain stopped printing HBD and started rewarding HP and liquid HIVE.
Yeah, but you then lost on the opportunity to 3x your investment if you kept your HBD in savings and didnt buy Hive.
Thats why id rather lower HBD apr in a bull market so people arent considering the 20% APR too convenient and miss on buying Hive.
That's assuming I had good timing to 3X my investment. I don't think we can generalize smart investing as something everybody knows how or wants to do. And it also assumes we all have the same risk appetite. For some, a guaranteed 20% may be superior to a potential 3X.
In crypto? Ive yet to meet that man. :D
I have changed my votes today :)
In a decentralized system changes are subject to our decision.
One thing I would like to say here is that the way we were seeing that within the last two years a lot of money has come in and people have put in and it would have been a very good thing if it was like this APR. If we reduce it, we may also see its price go down because people will buy it again in the market and buy other things, which can be very wrong for this project.
ok, let the fight about the APR begin
:D
Haha. We should be fine. No fists thrown, no low kicks or to the groin. :D
well, in german part of Hive... they want to abolish HBD and Downvotes xd :/
cuz either 20% APR is too good and robbing from the network
or HBD is evil cuz of US Dollar
and downvotes are evil in general
a lot of misunderstandings :/
I would love to listen the podcast, any link?
I dont think its live yet.
It's not but it's recorded.
Thanks!
https://peakd.com/@cttpodcast/jbylougw
the echo in sound is fixed after few minutes.
Ok!
I totally agree with you
Your explanation is right.
I'm writing yet another follow-up post to this topic tomorrow, and I've addressed this concern within.
Do we really think that these people calling HBD a scam are going to change their mind when yield is reduced?
Nah of course not they're just going to nitpick about some other detail, like how we just changed the interest rates so who knows what it will be tomorrow or the next day. These are not the kinds of people one caters to if they want to have any real success in this industry.
The argument is that less people will see it as a scam even though Ive seen only 1 guy with any non-insignificant following claim it is a scam. Funny, how much effect 1 random guy can have on some folks.
They defend the 20% yet fold so easily once the market dumps a bit.
Yeah it really just is the one guy huh.
These people act like it's pervasive.
HBD was way more of a scam at 0% APR when it was called SBD and dipped to 60 cents twice.
Now that will not happen again because of a higher haircut, Hive >> HBD conversions, and the yield.
Yeah exactly we already made it through 2 years of bear market and right when it's about to be over everyone starts collectively deciding we should unwind the position and this will somehow make number go up. Extreme 'depression' market cycle vibes right now.
Thanks for your analysis.
I personally still favor the 20% APR, at the end of 2023.
But by next year, let us evaluate even further this issue.
If some HF will happen that will cater to the much awaited smart contracts functions, time vaults, loans and others,within the year, surely I will expect to lower the apr.
In order to convert from from fiat to HBD, I need to make three trades. I need to sell my fiat into Bitcoin probably and then buy Hive with BTC. Then use the internal market to buy HBD. Each trade I lose with the spread, fees from both the exchanges and the blockchain, and take on counter party risk. I took a loss converting to HBD and hope to recover that value before I need to go back into BTC. Look at how Bittrex is not allowing withdrawals. That could have been my money. With BTC there is enough merchant adoption that I can just stay away from exchanges and spend BTC without touching these CEXes. This is not the case for Hive or HBD .