6 Year Anniversary Post

in #hive10 months ago

Six years ago I stumbled upon a website and blockchain that shall not be named, having absolutely no idea what I would be getting myself into. Over the past six years this platform and community ended up becoming pretty much my entire life, to the point where at one time my wife wondered if I had joined a cult. I suppose she may not have been far off :-)

In any case, I thought this would be a good opportunity for me to post again and share my thoughts about the state of the ecosystem and current hot topics like HBD APR. I sincerely apologize that I post so infrequently, but hopefully it's apparent that I am extremely active and involved in the Hive ecosystem in other ways.

I should mention/warn you ahead of time that this post is quite long. I guess that's to be expected when I try to cram a year's worth of ideas into one post! For those who manage to slog through it all, hopefully it's worth it and you find these thoughts and ideas to be helpful. If anyone wants to chat about these things (or anything else) feel free to reach out in the comments or on Discord (@yabapmatt there too) and I'll do my best to respond when I can.

HBD

It seems that all of the buzz these days is around the APR being paid on HBD savings. As I am currently signaling with my witness parameters, I am in favor of keeping the APR at 20%. For those who are calling anything paying out a 20% APR a scam or unsustainable, it is definitely in no way a scam, and while it may be unsustainable over the very long term (decades), it can be a great tool to help grow the network over the shorter term, especially during market downturns like we are in now.

What would make it a scam is if it promised 20% returns with little to no risk. The biggest issue with Terra (in my opinion) wasn't the fact that it paid out 20% APR or that it failed spectacularly, it was that it was marketed (or at least many people seemed to believe) that holding Terra had little to no risk and was akin to holding dollars in a bank account (which we are coming to learn also has more risk than many initially thought).

That was the scam of it. As long as we all are clear and honest about the fact that HBD has significant risk associated, then the 20% APR makes a whole lot more sense. With lower returns (even 10 or 12%) I don't think it's at all worth the risk and I wouldn't personally hold any meaningful amount of money in HBD. At 20% I have started to think about it - but still have not due to concerns about liquidity which I'll get to below.

Additionally, unlike Hive Power, HBD has no upside potential - so a risky asset with no upside potential has to offer a high APR for anyone to ever have a reason to hold it in any real quantity. The amount of HBD in savings will tell us one way or the other whether or not people think the returns are worth the risk.

Of course, by that logic you might ask why stop at 20%? Why not go to 30% or 100%? That would clearly lead to more HBD in savings and would be more worth the risk, right? Well, interestingly, the higher the APR goes, the more likely the system will hit the debt limit and HBD will no longer be convertible to $1 of HIVE. So basically, the higher the APR, the higher the risk goes too, and at some point the risk increases at a faster rate than the higher returns warrant.

All of this means that there is a sweet spot. There is some APR number that provides the maximum return relative to the risk. This whole debate is simply around guessing where that point is.

I cannot claim to know the answer (nobody does, really) but what I can say is that I spend a LOT of time researching and thinking about stablecoins (including attempting to implement one for Splinterlands) and based on everything I have seen regarding HBD over the past 6 years I don't see any indication that 20% is too high an APR given the current situation within the ecosystem. If anything, it might even be lower than the actual "sweet spot" from a risk/return perspective, so as mentioned above, my vote is to leave it where it is.

Lastly, I have heard some people claim that the HBD APR should be less than Hive Power APR, but as I mentioned above, HBD and HP are different because HP has price upside potential whereas HBD does not. This means that the potential returns for HP already significantly exceed that of HBD, albeit through a different mechanism. Ultimately, the choice for investors is - do you shoot for a known 20% APR (currently) by taking on the significant risk of holding HBD, or do you shoot for an unknown, yet uncapped, return by taking on similar risk by holding HP?

And yes, the risk profile for both HP and HBD are very similar. HBD is not less risky just because it is called a "stablecoin".

Again, I don't know the answer to that, and each investor can come to their own conclusions, but it seems to me that increasing the APR to 20% has for the first time made HBD start to become a viable choice for a more meaningful amount of capital, and I believe that is a positive thing for the network.

Liquidity

While I just spent a bunch of time pontificating about the HBD APR above, in reality I think there are much much more important things that the stakeholders in this ecosystem should be discussing and working on. First and foremost of those, in my opinion, is the issue of liquidity for both HIVE and HBD.

Right now it is almost impossible to purchase or sell HBD tokens in any significant quantity (without causing huge price movements), and it's a similar situation for HIVE for anyone who doesn't have access to Binance (which includes everyone in the US). This is one of the biggest things I suspect is holding this ecosystem back right now, and will continue to hold it back in the future.

If companies, funds, or high net worth investors want to invest millions into HIVE or HBD, we need it to be as easy as possible for them to do it, and even though we don't want them to ever sell those tokens, it's going to be very hard to convince any of those groups to invest significant amounts if they don't feel comfortable that they can easily unload their positions should they need to. Splinterlands is running into this problem right now, and it is a real issue that will be a major roadblock to capital coming into the ecosystem in the future.

The Leofinance team is going in the right direction in trying to address this issue through their wrapped HIVE and HBD tokens on various external EVM chains; however, despite how much I respect that team and what they're doing, I believe what they have built is far from what we will need to really solve this problem.

My ideal solution would be to put a small team together, funded by the DHF, to build a more decentralized bridge for HIVE and HBD to various EVM chains. This could work by setting up multi-sig wallets/contracts on Hive and EVM chains respectively controlled by a majority of the top 20 elected Hive witnesses to hold and manage the bridged tokens and contracts. This post is already long enough so I won't go into the specific details, but I know that @fbslo has built a prototype of something like this in the past and it is definitely doable and would provide a reasonably decentralized and robust bridging solution for the tokens.

Note: I know that Hive Engine has liquidity pools and bridges for external tokens; however, if we really want to attract capital I think we need to go to where the capital is - and that means EVM chains and markets like Uniswap and Sushiswap.

The second part of the solution requires incentivizing people to provide liquidity for the tokens on the various bridged chains. The best way to do that is simply to pay people for it, which can also be accomplished through the DHF. A proposal can be made to pay out HBD to users who provide HIVE or HBD liquidity on various external EVM platforms. Despite everything I said above about the HBD APR, I would happily set the HBD savings rate to 0% and instead apply that HBD inflation towards incentivizing liquidity if that were an option.

I believe that incentivizing liquidity would provide immensely more value for the ecosystem than incentivizing savings, but until things like the bridges, wrapped tokens, and multi-sig setups are built we don't really have a good way of doing that.

Services & Tooling

The second biggest issue for the Hive ecosystem behind the lack of liquidity described above, is the lack of commercial-grade services and tooling available for building on Hive. Hive is incredibly well positioned from a tech perspective for mainsteam mass adoption of blockchain applications, but what we are lacking is the applications themselves.

Of course I know that there are many applications built on top of Hive, but most of them are just a few people building things in their spare time with limited resources. Even though many of those teams have done an amazing job and built some great things considering their limitations, what I think we need for Hive to reach its full potential is a slew of really top-quality applications run by experienced teams with significant funding and resources.

I've talked to a number of teams looking for a platform on which to build their applications, and while they're very interested in Hive due to all of the benefits it provides over most other blockchain platforms, the conversations fall flat once it gets into more detail about how exactly to build on Hive because of the lack of services and tools available.

If you build an application on an EVM chain, you'll have access to hundreds of tools and services including wallets, payments, infrastructure, marketplaces, taxes & accounting, etc. Everything you could possibly need to get your application up and running. On Hive, there is almost none of that and you need to figure it out and build it all on your own.

I know how difficult that is first-hand because we've had to do it for Splinterlands. Unfortunately, what we built for Splinterlands is very specific for that application and can't really be used for other projects. We don't intend for that to be the case going forward, however, which is why when we started building our second game - Genesis League Goals - we planned to build out all of the necessary tools and services in a more generic fashion, and eventually to release them as open-source software, so that we can offer a full, end-to-end solution for teams to build their applications on Hive.

We are calling this the Invennium platform, and the Goals game is the first application built using Invennium which will allow us to show that the tools and services work at scale on a live project. @therealwolf has been leading the project to build out generic Hive tools and services for Invennium, and he has been doing a great job so please give him your support if you aren't already. I hope to see those be made open source and available for third-party applications to begin using in the near future.

Even though we are working on these things, I would also love to see some teams outside of Splinterlands working on them as well. In my opinion that would be a great opportunity for the DHF to provide funding in a way that would lead to a positive overall return for the ecosystem.

A quick list of some of the tools and services that I think are needed are listed below, in case anyone is looking for some projects to work on and to try to get funding for. I would be happy to help provide advice / guidance / support for anyone looking at tackling some of these problems, so feel free to reach out!

  • Account Management - Creating Hive accounts, managing keys, account recovery, managing resource credits
  • Payments - HIVE & HBD payments, external crypto & fiat options, taxes & accounting support
  • Tokens - Fungible & Non-Fungible token creation, management, bridging, and markets
  • Infrastructure - Running nodes, fetching data, broadcasting transactions, multi-sig
  • Smart Contracts & Governance - Custom JSON smart contracts, validator software, DAOs

Year 7

I'm no good at predicting the future, so rather than tell you what I think will happen in my seventh year on this platform, I will tell you what I hope will happen. I hope that we at least see the beginnings of another major bull run in the blockchain and crypto industry with new narratives focused around providing real products and services that people value and not as much of the get-rich-quick/ponzi vibes of the ICO craze and the DeFi/NFT boom of previous cycles.

Decentralized Social Media (DeSoc?) seems like it could potentially be a part of the next cycle narrative, which is extremely exciting both because social media desperately needs something to combat the extreme levels of corruption and censorship present in the current system, and because Hive has obviously been waiting for that narrative for 7+ years.

I sincerely hope that Hive isn't overlooked by the shiny new DeSoc platforms that are certain to continue to pop up on other chains, which is why I am pushing for the HIVE token to be available and have liquidity on the most popular DEXes and for there to be great tools and services that allow the best of the shiny new applications to be built right here.

No matter what happens, I sincerely and truly appreciate my time here as part of this community, all of the friends I have made, and all of the people who have supported me along the way. I can't wait to see what the future holds and I look forward to continuing on this journey with all of you!

- @yabapmatt

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A large portion of this directly or indirectly pertains to the work we are doing with the VSC Project. See our website for more info https://vsc.eco

Let's get in touch, we could definitely use the help here.

This is amazing to know. Thank you for all your great work!

Congrats on your 6th anniversary!
Pretty much in agreement with all your points on HBD, the APR and furthermore the liquidity and bridged to EVMs chains. Solving the liquidity issue and the bridges is especially important.

This post is a banger. @dhimmel you got quite the company on this platform, I tell you. To think we have similar birthdays on this platform feels truly unique. I’m a complete consumer, looking to cash in on 20% APR, sharing my content on this platform, and recruiting anyone who would willingly delegate to my stake here to continue adding value on my journey.

I like your perspective on HBD, and second the call for liquidity and tooling to make those wonderful dapps we just don’t have yet, in comparison to other chains.

DeSoc seems like the latest buzz, but I hope it continues to hum for seven year-old sleeping giants like ours.

Amazing post, man. Glad to have people like you on this chain and happy for all the success your projects have had and will continue to in the future, I'm sure.

Can't really disagree with any of your points, we really need better and trust less connections to other chains, many ideas I've had have lead back to the difficulty of having to create such bridges personally for projects yet to be certain. I've often dm'd fbslo asking him various things about it as I know he has experience with it. I think we really ought to focus more funding towards that.

Agreed. We should also look at some of the new work on the Cosmos Chains not just the EVM ones.
There is a lot of liquidity on Cosmos and a lot of new work on Cosmos/EVM interconnection with the IBC protocol that is constantly improving.

You covered so much, some of it will take time to digest.

In anycase, I'm so glad you found a little blockchain 6 years ago, and thanks for all the things you brought with you to the table.

Congrats Matt, you're one of main reasons I've stuck around this long. All your great tools like the upvoting bots and splinterlands have brought massive value to the chain. I do thing DeSoc is the future but it will take the right person to prove its usecase to the masses.

I'm one of those who thinks holding HBD at 20% interest isn't a good thing, but if you and @taskmaster4450 say it's okay, then surely it's me I’m wrong

You never know, you might turn out to be right. We are all just making the best guesses we can based on the information we have available. Keep thinking about it and watching how things play out and don't be afraid to change your mind if the situation changes.

Thanks for your reply and your advice

A big congrats being here and contributing to this network.

I think apart from HBD savings, user are also receiving ~3% APR on HP as well, so even if HBD APR is cut below 20%, here we already enjoying a variable APR on HP + variable rewards i.e. curation and post.

It might affect the marketing side of Hive, but it should be sustainable to cover the debt ration proportion.

Wow nice post I agree with everything you said.
Although the struggle is real there is still a lot of hope for the future.
The battle for better infrastructure continues.

6 years is amazing in this space and you have accomplished some great things.

I too hope that Hive isn't overlooked in the next bull run. It is a great blockchain and it needs some more attention.

Thank you!

Woot congratulations on your 6th annivrsary. It is such an accomplishment to have wrangled Splinterlands into life, your witness is going strong and who really knows what other doors you have stepped through. Now....on to the 7th!

I would prefer to move in and out of Hive via HBD. In my experience, this is largely hampered by what you have described. I do hope that some talent takes up the projects you have listed.

I really learnt a lot reading this post and happy anniversary on your years spent on Hive.

Excelente articulo, y toda la razon con respecto a HBD HIVE yo seguire apostando por el asi que esperemos este año sea victorioso

Congratulations, you have dedicated a lot of time to the platform, I hope at some point to be able to understand it better and learn as much.

6 Years of showing up on Hive? That's incredible

Congratulations👏 It takes consistency, determination and a resilient person to come this far and you are that person

Congratulations for your 6yrs on this platform, starting of something is easy but being consistent is another matter, many people that have started with you are no more, you are here still doing mighty things congratulations once again .

Congratulations on your 6th anniversary here.

Thank you for this detailed article! Although I'm not completely up to date with all arguments about the hbd apr, I think you're definitely describing interesting and important aspects which will help me to form my own opinion further!

to the point where at one time my wife wondered if I had joined a cult. I suppose she may not have been far off :-)

Lol ohhh dear tell me about it😂😂 Hive can be pretty addictive and non Hiveans who don’t get it can always assume the worst.

It sure was a long read but enlightening to the core and congratulations dear friend for hitting 6 years on the block chain, I have been here for a few months and oh boy Hive is amazing!

cheers to more amazing years here

Congratulations dear friend. 🎉🎉👍👍
It is indeed a great achievement that you have remained here continuously for 6 years. Best wishes for the journey ahead of you.

Congratulations for 6 years on hive and what you said HBD makes sense. Indeed there are many things to be focused upon rather than HBD apr. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Congrats! And thanks for sharing your thoughts!

Congratulations! I understand the feeling of feeling Hive as a huge part of your life. It happens the same to me, but I’m pretty new compared with you.

I really like your post and the analysis you made in order to offer some ideas to make this ecosystem, a stronger platform than it already is.

I’ll read it again! I believe it’s very useful for all of us (the hivers).

Congratulations bro @yabapmatt

Congratulations on all this time on the Blockchain, regardless of the Hard Fork. I liked when you mentioned the Terra project and its Stablecoin, we shouldn't hold a significant amount in a token for that exchange purpose. I believe lowering HBD's APR to similar percentages of its distant competitors to 5% or less. We would then benefit more from keeping Hive Power with its APR rising to 5%.

Thank you for Hive-Engine, this is the best exchange!

Congratulations on your sixth anniversary, very good your arguments, we hope everything crystallizes. Have a great week.

This was a really long post. I didn't understand it all because you talked about so many things I don't know, but that's okay. Thanks for everything you do for Hive man and happy 6th anniversary!

Congrats on your anniversary on hive it is really not easy to keep the consistency and activeness on the blockchain and I appreciate your efforts towards that.

Wow!! 6 year already, @yabapmatt? Amazing, my friend. What a nice day this one is for calebrating! Congrats and for more years with us!!

Great ideas, I hope we get to vote on a proposal to get these things going soon! Maybe we could start by integrating with Chainge Defi?

@tipu curate

Thanks for sharing your experienced viewpoints on these issues, especially for someone who is much more familiar with Splinterlands than Hive itself.

I don't know about these HBD and Hive issues, I'm talking about tokens, and I'm glad to see someone else concerned and willing to push the progress of this platform.
I just want to wish you many many birthdays here, health, and happiness in life!

Happy Birthday. I just celebrated my 1 year Anniversary. 🎂 🎈 🎉

Congratulations and happy anniversary :) There are some great suggestions here.

I agree with you and I believe we will see a bull run too in the next year.

Seven years on the blockchain is not easy and keep up all the good work you do.

This is why you’re my number 1 witness! Congrats on your 6th year

Congratulations on your 6th year on this blockchain. I can still remember how you supported me when I was exploring the chain to learn, and I hope you will take a leading role in initiating one of the projects you mentioned.

I agree with your stance on HBD APR. We should target a different type of investor. While a 20% APR for HBD has gained some attention, the challenge lies in securing enough liquidity for real-world projects.

Lastly, I look forward to see your developments in new Hive-based projects, and I hope your future predictions come true.
$WINE

Cheers~

Congrats! We are lucky to have you here. 🚀🎉

Many congratulations for completing 6 years. I like the way yous see hive in these past years, you understand the system and looks for entry space and provided some solutions. Although I'm not technical guy and can't understand anything but I like the transperency.
Congratulations again and best of luck for 7th year.

Congratulations to you sir, this is awesome, six years and still counting. Thank you for all these teachings as I digest them bit by bit. May many more years find you waxing stronger on this platform.

Congratulations on the 6-year anniversary!
clove71

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Hi @yabapmatt I am reaching out to ask for a witness vote, I also have been on the blockchain for almost 6 years and came here because of splinterlands, I am a good friend of @mattclarke and I know you are too. We both fully promote the splinterlands game here in Adelaide. Not sure if you have seen This Post We are a close community here in Australia, from meetups to Guilds, we are here for the long term. your support is appreciated.

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Congrats on 6 years! I'm just a few days from that milestone myself.

Ya que tu sabes mucho mas que muchos aqui sobre la plataforma, queria preguntarte como haria yo para hacer una publicacion sobre el mantenimiento de mi violin, ya que es costoso comprar las cuerdas, colocarle cerdas nuevas a mi arco, y Hive es quien me ayuda pero a veces no me alcanza para hacerle un mantenimiento completo, como haria para llevar mi cuenta a otro nivel y poder ayudarme yo misma a darle mantenimiento a mi violin, que es mi instrumento de trabajo. Saludos y disculpa la pregunta solo es para que me orientes

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