"The Tariffs will put the USA in a severe recession." Don't you think there is a strong chance the tariffs will be outweighed by the income tax cut? I agree the tariffs are contractionary because they reduce the deficit, but the income tax cuts and spending increases go in the opposite direction. So, as much as I am against the tariffs, it seems they may not actually cause a recession. The interest-rate hikes are a different story though.
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good point..interest rates of course..but tariffs are detrimental. Herbert Hoover and the Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930 is going to be a replay. It exacerbated the great depression.
But that was before fiat currencies. Now you just print so much money that everyone can afford to pay the tariffs. No big deal. Maybe it IS a big deal because the tariffs are bigger than the tax cut/spending increases. But I'm just saying...the government couldn't just hand out checks to everybody during Smoot-Hawley. Now they can. Also, the trade deficit has actually increased since the tariffs were enacted, which implies that they aren't impoverishing people enough to keep them from buying imports. So we'll see. Maybe the 25% hitting in January will finally tank the economy. I'm just not sure they won't spend themselves out of this dilemma like they have all the other times.
excellent points! thanks again..