Introduction
One of the questions I have been getting a lot from people who are new to cryptocurrencies and naive to the volatility within these markets is why everything is tanking right now.
In fact my mother who never talks about such things was telling me that she read in the newspaper (they still exist lol) that Bitcoin was going to go bust or something along those lines.
Some new cryptocurrency users have also messaged me on chat, FB and Twitter as they are anxious and wondering if this is the end of "the party".
This is a quick (or as quick as I can make it) explanation for new users about what is happening and WHY YOU SHOULD NOT PANIC.
What is causing this?
There are a number of factors at play but the main one is uncertainty.
The cryptocurrency markets are highly speculative and whilst all markets have some elements of speculation bitcoin and altcoin markets have a much larger degree of speculation within them.
There are multiple reasons for this (such as the relatively small size of these markets). The more important point is the source of the uncertainty:
Why is there uncertainty?
The uncertainty is caused by fears over a couple of Bitcoin scaling solutions (Segwit 2X/BIP 148) that may or may not activate towards the beginning of August 2017.
Why would these scaling solutions cause uncertainty?
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- People are scared that these scaling solutions may "break" bitcoin in some way.
- People are afraid that the community will become more split on ideological grounds and that we may end up with multiple chains i.e. more than one type of bitcoin.
- There is fear that backing the wrong chain may cause people to lose bitcoins if it ultimately ends up failing.
- The last few months have seen very rapid and very large rises in both bitcoin and altcoin prices without (until now) any significant corrections. This creates a background of uncertainty which the scaling issue builds upon.
Why is this making the bitcoin price fall though?
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As a result of the fear and uncertainty people are selling bitcoin to cash out into fiat in preparation of a price fall.
The more this happens the more it pushes down the price.
Why are altcoin prices falling?
Altcoin prices are closely tied to the bitcoin price since in most cases the only way to buy and sell them is via bitcoin.
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This means that as the bitcoin price falls altcoin prices follow too.
In addition many people may be trying to get out of cryptocurrencies altogether until this period of instability passes. They will be selling their altcoins for bitcoin (which will put downward pressure on prices), and then selling the bitcoin for fiat.
They may be hoping that they can then buy back at a lower price and increase their long term holdings when the market normalises and the uncertainty has passed.
Are there other factors involved?
Yes.
Some bitcoin businesses may suspend operations during the period of greatest risk in order to protect themselves from blockchain problems (e.g. chain splits).
I have heard a number of business suggest this although I have yet to see any specific details.
It makes sense of course - you don't want to risk sending or spending money on the wrong chain if a split occurs.
This does add to the feeling of doom within the markets and also further reduces demand for bitcoin during the critical period.
Some businesses may already be ramping down their bitcoin operations in preparation.
Should I sell my bitcoin for fiat?
That is up to you.
If you want to pursue the strategy of selling at the top and buying at the bottom this would make sense.
The problem is the "top" was a few weeks ago and there is no definite way of knowing where the bottom will be.
It is easy to get caught out in pursuing this strategy.
Some might say it is too late for it to work and it may involve a lot of work for very little payoff, particularly if the market recovers more quickly than expected.
Should I sell my altcoins for bitcoin?
Again there is no way to say if this will work in your favour or not.
In some previous crises bitcoin has weathered the storm better than altcoins, in others altcoins have fared better.
The logical answer would be to keep a combination of both so you can spread your risk.
Should I be afraid?
In my opinion, no.
Cryptocurrencies and blockchain are going to replace the current monetary system - I think most people involved see that, the only question is how long it will take.
I am quite confident that once the scaling issues are resolved the bitcoin price will recover (surpassing the $3K ceiling it set before).
When that happens altcoin prices will start following.
Not only that, but we will be in a much stronger position as a successful resolution of the current scaling issues will prove that the community can overcome such obstacles.
I think we may even end up seeing a $5K bitcoin not long after that if things go well.
What if it all goes wrong - will bitcoin and altcoins die?
In a word - no.
It is easy to catastrophize - things could go very badly but the ultimate result of that will be that prices will stay suppressed for a little longer.
It may even benefit bitcoin/altcoin adoption as some of those who felt "priced out" of the market may see it as their chance to get in to the market.
Things are rarely 100% positive or negative.
What should I do then?
I can't answer that.
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Personally I am using the opportunity to buy more of the altcoins I believe in, in anticipation of when the crisis resolves.
I prefer to invest in altcoins as I believe that when growth does return, they will have greater profit potential (due to their lower relative valuations).
Plus as I have stated before I am no good at day trading and prefer to hold long term (for projects which I believe in).
Individual strategies will vary depending on your own personal experiences and situation.
In addition I am doing other things and paying less attention to the markets - why stress yourself out over things that are beyond your control?
Conclusion
There is a good reason for why I chose the title here - not only is it true but it is also a Battlestar Galactica quote - "All this has happened before and all this will happen again".
This is a concept that comes from a variety of spiritual belief systems. One could also look at the occurrence of fractal patterns in nature as an example of it.
This is not the first cryptocurrency crisis and this will not be the last. Each crisis may have its own peculiarities but much of what happens and the way that the market responds will be similar.
I firmly believe that bitcoin and blockchain technologies are the future - they constitute a revolution that will not only change the financial world but many other aspects of life that we may not even be able to envision right now.
Like most revolutions it will not be easy and it will come with some degree of turmoil. That is the nature of disruptive technology.
Those that keep this in mind and refuse to panic will likely do better than those that give in to fear.
As I have said many times before there is no great reward without an accompanying risk.
Thank you for reading
I think this is the fifth major crypto price decline that I have weathered.
The collapse of bitcoin, from $35 to well under $2, was the worst lol.
Compared to that one, this is a cakewalk!
@onceuponatime,
That's very true! People complaining too much about this price drop... Because, they don't know the history :D
Can I screen shot your reply to show to the people who complain about the price drop?
Thanks~
exactly. we had way bigger drops before and we're recovering much quicker nowadays
Great points. I think we would have been due for this pullback even without the scaling issue entirely. As you noted, we've simply gone too far, too fast. With the scaling issue as well, I wouldn't be surprised to see $1000, but I think $1200 might be a more likely bottom. Anything could happen really, calling price points still requires an awful lot of luck.
"I have heard a number of business suggest this although I have yet to see any specific details."
There was a post yesterday about one Bitcoin ATM company, I think in the UK (Shire maybe? I forget) announcing they will shut down operations prior to Aug 1st and "wait and see".
Didn't even notice the Battlestar reference until the last section, oops.
Yes I think we might see a bottom around $1200 or $1000 according to other who know about the TA side of things. Hadn't heard about the ATM company but it does make sense for them.
Still, 50/50 guess so......50% now and hold 50% for your guess. If you're wrong you just be buying in a little late with the other half.
Why not break it down into 10% increments or less and buy over time.
dollar cost averaging is an excellent strategy imo
great strat, thank you
Again fantastic blog post @thecryptofiend.
I would like to describe my strategy. I do not believe that prices have touched the bottom. In other words, prices will fall even more in next days and weeks. So I do not buy any crypto right now, but wait. I will invest in three to five altcoins plus bitcoin.
At the moment I am writing series of texts about cryptocurrencies I believe in. If you are interested where to put money consider following me.
I think a better strategy is to spread out your buys since nobody knows for sure where the bottom will be.
I agree that nobody knows but in my opinion prices are still high. There are many reasons I believe that prices will fall even more.
@thecryptofiend do you believe that all of these influences are already imputed in prices?
That's not what I'm saying. Yes prices probably will fall more but where do you draw the line? That is why I buy in small amounts over time. It is a different strategy but neither is good or bad, you just have different risks.
Agree!
I always tell folks that the alternative to crypto currency is what? So I really feel that after August it's about to be a mad house again. This is a new market though, less than what, 3 years old? Yeah...that's why I really don't listen to all these fake analyzers and crypto currency predictors. The market is just too new to start doing all of that. Now I will say this, the prices are still much higher than they were in April, so even if Bitcoin drops below 1400 along with other coins, technically it is still higher than normal.
Yes and that is also why there is still the possibility for it to drop down to around the $1000 mark.
Whatever it does, I'm with it. I don't plan on going back to the dollar for much investment or o make my money grow.
Lol 3 years old??? What are you drinking cuz I want some... BTC was created 2008 went live 2009. $1 bought about 1000 or so BTC back then on the first exchange.
I stand corrected. So 2010 about...So the market is 7 years old. SO it's relatively new. ANd only since early Feb has really seen this type of growth. It's hard to speculate what the heck will happen in a market like that.
It's still a young market, but many prices are seriously inflated or based purely on speculation. With value investing (the best kind of investing in my opinion), an asset is weighed against its underlying value. To say that the EOS platform is worth $400 million right now... that's tough. When prices reflect so much of future expectations and so little of actual use, that's when its important to be wary. I don't disagree with you regarding more investors getting in in August, but just providing an alternative view.
I always say to people, look at the lifetime price history of Bitcoin. This kind of drop has happened time and time again, and each time, Bitcoin has bounced back stronger. Now that's not to say it's guaranteed to do so again, but it's what's happened every time so far!
Exactly.
Bitcoin has died 140 times and counting..(Bitcoin Orbituary)
time flies ! 140 already !
Exactly!
Amazing article and well explained. You shouldn't have fear with the prices falling now. Everyone is just scared but it will bounce back up again. All around the world people are accepting cryptocurrency's already. Although it's with baby steps, it are still steps.
This is actually a great time to invest en buy some currency's while they are 'cheap'. At the end of the year they will be worth more than they were 1 month ago!
Thanks - yes I agree. Now is a good time to buy but given most people's psychology they will instead be selling.
Thats true. They are thinking short term. But if you think long term you will be a winner. Just like Steem, you have to hold it now and if you are a persona that likes to have it payed out, you can pay it out in a few month's to have a lot more cash!
Exactly.
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Amazing commitment, this took substantial time to format and create. Professional grade, not blog grade.
You deserve the professional grade pay out you will get with this work.
STEEM On!!
Thank you!
I think the best option is to stay calm and to wait. After all 1 Bitcoin for example was just 600$ last year, little drops now are not a big deal. ;)
I agree.
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Excellent use of formatting, headers, etc. I think it's the best article I've read here in terms of styling - makes it very clear and easy to read. Content is great too. Thank your for sharing your views.
Thanks glad you liked it. I try to make it clear and easy to read.
This is another bitcoin doomsday hype and I believe nothing will happen although people can cut their loses by selling now and buying low. After 1st of August I hope we see uptrend of all coins until the winter. Especially Steem/SBD/EOS/Bitshares.
why do you think these and not one of the 800+ other ones?
Yes people seem to love saying the world is ending.
The mayas predicted Bitcoin doomsday 1st of August lol. It's funny how many people are panic selling. The people who will lose the most from this ridicilous panic are the miners. Their roi on their equipment and electricity or cloud service is diving and they can't do nothing.
I think most of it is done on such a scale and with such big players that they can take the hit and wait for things to settle. They might not like it but they won't go out of business.
The main problem that I see after 1st of august is not some doomsday crypto but huge percentage of btc and other currencies will be overtaken by the whales so we will have quite controlled market price. If too many people panic sells to them, it's a gg for all small to mid players on the market exchange.
Only if people fall for it.
an insightful post, reassuring investors about returns by appealing to the concept of eternal return - I'm amazed by your curious learning, my friend, relating even the vagaries of financial cycles to fractals in nature and explaining everything in simple terms.
Perhaps T.S. Eliot was right: “The historical sense involves a perception, not only of the pastness of the past, but of its presence”
This too will pass and as you so wisely said, there are other things in life besides the markets.
Such a thoughtful and balanced outlook
Thank you so much:)
You know, as a PM stacker that sounds eerily familiar to me. That is basically the same what PM bugs tell each other - and themself - for years now. And the prices are still rediculously low, after all those years.
My recommendation is: don't invest unless you can afford to wait for a profitable - or loss free at least - payout for a long time. Perhaps even years.
I have no idea what that (PM) is. That is the difference.
Sorry, PM - precious metals, as in gold, silver ect.
Sometimes the "gang slang" comes through... :)
Of course I knew it would be something obvious! I think the thing about precious metals is that they aren't a disruptive technology though.
Oh, they are very disruptive too, to those who control the fiat currencies (paper money). They always have been something like a mirror that reflects the true value of a fiat currency. For that reason their price gets supressed and maniputated down, to conceil that the value of the US$ (and other paper currencies) is sinking for decades.
Crypto currencies are just another annoyance for the powers that control the money flow - simply because they are difficult to control. But they will try, I'm sure.
The same worries and uncertainties were with millenium problem. A lot of people were scared by possible computer system crashes when move from 1999 to 2000. IT sector earned a lot of money "solving" that issue, although there were no real threats, as it became clear later.
That's a very good example.
Yes, this is a classic example of market psychology. Market do not like uncertainty and that is exactly what we have for the next couple weeks.
This is a buy the rumor sells the news opportunity if I have ever seen one. No guarantee it will work, but the scenario for a success is certainly there.
Yes.
@thecryptofiend
you just hit the nail on the head beautifully. Am new in crypto world but you just gave me some sense of hope and believe all will be ok. Am very glad to be following you in steem to partake from your wealth of knowledge...
i have one question...
I powerd up most of my steem...few weeks back it was double the amount of US$ but now my Steem power value is depreciating fast...Is it because of the same August first fears? Should I have any cause
to fear?
Thanks in anticipation fo your response...
Yes it's because the bitcoin price is falling and every altcoin including Steem is falling too.
And there is 100% hope things will come back to normal...which includes value of daily blog posts like yours hitting over $1k plus daily and steem power to?
I joined few weeks back and the value i saw on posts whch inspired many to post is no more as such, many bloggers are withdrawing...so will all these revert back?
thanks for your answers
The value for blog posts fluctuate over time as they are based on a number of factors - they will probably go up but I can't say they will go back to previous values because there are more factors than the Steem value which affect them.
ok...thanks..am learning because the steem seminar i wanna organise will require question and answer time...what those factors which caused the blog posts value to drop and what are being done to ramp it up to a better level...what level do we foresee and how soon...
thanks once more for your guide
It looks like many people are just panicking and think they have no choice than just taking their money out of the markets. There is nowhere better to store their coins so they think rather than holding and gaining in the future, they are going to take the loss to protect the huge profits they may have made so far.
I don't think the 'end of crypto' is coming anytime soon.
If anything there may be a boom of crypto after this hardship.
We all just need to be a bit more patient and remain calm.
Thank you for reassuring people @thecryptofiend
You're welcome!
Great post. This is the kind of perspective I like to find when looking for information about what is happening. There is too much negativity out there, that is starting to get boring getting information about this subject. When it comes to the crypto space we all must learn to think in bigger terms with a broader perspective.
Thanks - exactly my thoughts. It is easy to get caught up in emotional thinking but that can sabotage us in the long term.
That's a precise explanation to all these crypto questions people are asking nowadays.
First things first, Bitcoin will further fall for sure because everyone considered 1 August as a deadline and no one is purchasing anything in the market right now, as a result without no purchasing power, Bitcoin will further decline.
Secondly, there are 80% chances of Segwit implementation but still 20% chances exist for failure, and people generally fears negativity and they are just considering the neativity now, selling all their bitcoin shares and converting them into fiat.
Thirdly, Crypto currencies came into existence recently, so there's no way the are going back to again at zero. People always need something to play speculation for. So crypto's are the best option for short time investors, they will never let them die.
So, the best time to invest is within one week and after that price will get started to increase because of buying pressure. So, grab the opportunity before it passes.
Anyways a big thumbs up for the article @thecryptofiend
Thanks.
Can't keep a good thing down! We're almost back to where we were at the top.
Exactly in a few weeks when Segwit activates it could break to new levels.
This article should be definitely published in a newspaper!
Lol thanks:)
Solid analysis with various factors considered. I will keep an eye on your blog.
Thanks!
great post, thank you! I am new to crypto and this has answered lots of my questions.
You're welcome:)
Thanks you for sharing. I think August 1st is considerable and may cause chain split to Bitcoin blockchain.
It could but I don't think it will happen.
Fantastically informative and helpful post especially for those of us like myself who are extremely new to cryptos. I will be looking on from Augusts 1st with wide eyed interest.
Hopefully it doesn't take too long to resolve :)
Hopefully not. Although if I'm completely honest, a slow turnaround gives me a bit more to scratch together some meagre funds to invest. 😉
I picked the wrong time to invest. Not in market time but time in my life. If only I'd known when I had an income. 🙁
Bloody great article and summary mate!
I'm buying small amounts in the dips on the way down for Bitcoin and a couple of other cryptos.
As you say, nobody can pick the absolute bottom!
One thing you may have touched on is storing your cryptos in an offline hardware wallet while this is going on. That way you are not locked into any particular online exchanges if things get a bit tricky. (and if there is a split, you can control your destiny to some degree).
Good job and well done!!
Thank you so much. Yes you should never keep everything on an exchange. Obviously if you are hoping to trade you need to take that risk but keep everything else on your own wallets.
Excellent post. Hopefully more people will read it
Upvoted and resteemed
Thank you.
Very good insight for the fearless. Bitcoin probably will bottom out further for a short while. Like your post states 'Don't Panic'. I'm just waiting for the next big boom of which, I am confident, it will come.
Yes me too.
some very interesting points
Thanks!
Very well explained, the reasons of current market situation. Some will see it as an opportunity and some a signal to leave. Who wins in the end, will be told by the time only.
Thank you!
Congratulations @thecryptofiend!
Your post was mentioned in my hit parade in the following category:
Left: Marijuana
Mid: Meth
Right: Watching Bitcoin dump below $2k
lol
:)
Thank for putting good effort on this blog ⬆️ Upvoted 👌🏻
You're welcome:)
I like your post, honesty and the fact that nobody's knows. My option is not to sell. DO NOT take your lose. Just sit and wait. Don't check everyday, this makes everybody crazy :) I know cause I have 16 different coins lol.. Buy if you can afford it. I am here for the long run and must say it do not really like the day traders or the people that hype a coin in a community, online or on youtube. You buy, they sell. Currency will drop.. Every time All the best.
Very well said. Thank you.
Nice writeup! Format was superb!
Thanks!
Yes, all this has happened before. Google "Beanie Babies". Internet fads never last forever.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are not an internet fad. Strange irony that you would use a blockchain platform to compare them to Beanie Babies - it is a nonsensical comparison since they had no actual utility or purpose.
Further your response suggests to me that you just read the title and nothing else.
Is Litecoin safe?
Safe in what way?
A logical explanation for what's going on. Excellent post. :)
Resteeming this to 12,000+ followers.
Thank you:)
Great to hear another opinion, I'm trying to decide right now whether to do a little buying or wait
Yes that is often the question. One alternative is to break down your buys and spread them out.
this is a great piece @thecryptofiend. excellent style of writing. this is really a great post. thanks for sharing
Thank you!
Super thanks for this article mate!
I have gone through a couple days worth of crypto posts and put together a special episode of ~(Q2C2~)~ featuring my favorite crypto related posts in this super volatile time of which scares many.
Thanks for all you do for this community and your honorable standards.
You can check out the post here if u like.
SteemON!
https://steemit.com/money/@quinneaker/quinn-s-quality-content-curation-q2c2-episode-5-special-edition-best-posts-on-crypto
Cool I will check it out:)
Thanks for all you do. Your a hero for sure.
Bless~*~
Really enjoyed this and I agree. Concise :-) I picked up more Golem today at the silly price of 18 cents. I'm using the crash to get more altcoins I like at silly prices. The only issue I have is getting more liquid FIAT to get more crypto.
Yes that is always the big problem. Would be nice to be fiat rich so I could buy more.
Yes! I love this point. I've been thinking about diversification as it relates to crypto quite a bit lately, so I started writing a series a series of articles about it. I think it's going to be even more crucial as the market matures more and altcoins start following their own paths, rather than simply mimicking bitcoin's price curve.
Diversification is almost always a good strategy.
I firmly believe that bitcoin and blockchain technologies are the future - they constitute a revolution that will not only change the financial world but many other aspects of life that we may not even be able to envision right now.
I agree.
Very nice article ! I totally agree with your analysis.
Thank you!
It pisses me off that altcoins must suffer at the instability in Bitcoin, that for some reason coins that have direct fiat pairs and no scaling problems are dumped just reeks of speculation and collusion. I hope the space can grow out of that.
I'd like to see more people in the crypto space getting involved with core communities and spend less time speculating on price.
Rant over :)
Agreed - in fact the tie to bitcoin is in some ways a form of centralisation. What we need are more fiat gateways to disconnect bitcoin from altcoins - everyone has known it since altcoins have existed but the regulatory framework in most countries makes it difficult and risky.
Yeah that's what I like about what Lykke are doing, I hope as they get registered in more locations and can lead the many to many revolution.
Still the centralised 'trading' exchanges influence will still be very powerful. It just takes some time I guess.
Very great blog. You captured the essences of a cryptocurrency love affair lmao. Well, that's my perception of it. You did an excellent job providing details and I find the market now to be the best time to purchase any coins. As we all know the market is just resetting and preparing itself to take off to new heights. ImI'moubling down on all my current coins and patiently waiting for that great return. Keep on steeming steemiteer
Thanks - I think even if it takes a couple of months (or longer) it will get to new heights.