This post serves as a brief update to show the latest results of the four models as the basketball tournament continues. Only four teams remain, so it is a good point to which models were good at picking winners and which models ended up falling for losers.
In the chart below is an updated point estimate of each of the four models. This chart uses the traditional scoring system where each subsequent round, selecting the correct winner grants you double the points.
| Model | Champion | Runner-Up | Points | Points Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | Virginia | 70 | 16 | |
| SPM | Virginia | 67 | 48 | |
| MASPM | Virginia | 72 | 16 | |
| EDLM | Virginia | 67 | 16 |
All four models had Virginia in the final game, so they all have points remaining to add to their perspective totals. The best model to this point is the margin-adjusted schedule plus-minus model having 72 points. EDM is not too far behind, but is guaranteed to be either the second or third best model for this tournament. Other than the MASPM, the SPM model still has a shot at winning since it selected Virginia to win the whole tournament and all other models have had their champions eliminated.
So we'll see which model comes out on top next Monday. This has been an interesting tournament so far with this past weekend being more chaotic in terms of results than the prior. Things are winding down and college basketball season is almost over. Well, there's always next year.