Today, we are continuing with the analysis of the NCAA Division 1 Tournament bracket through the lens of the Estimated Difference Model. This is a continuation of yesterday's analysis. Last time, we covered the East and West Regions. Today, we will cover the Midwest and South Regions as well as reveal the champion selection of the model.
A brief remainder that the team with the highest EDM rating progresses and teams in the First Four are represented by the better team (by EDM) in this bracket. This means the bracket might fluctuate given the results of the First Four play-in games. That being said, three of the four games have no impact. Only the Belmont-Temple game has any implications on the EDM bracket.
The South Region
Opening Round
1 Virginia (3158) beats 16 Gardner-Webb (1632)
8 Ole Miss (2014) beats 9 Oklahoma (1958)
12 Oregon (2375) beats 5 Wisconsin (2354)
4 Kansas State (2398) beats 13 UC Irvine (2300)
11 Saint Mary's (2479) beats 6 Villanova (2352)
3 Purdue (2575) beats 14 Old Dominion (1860)
7 Cincinnati (2440) beats 10 Iowa (1950)
2 Tennessee (2689) beats 15 Northern Kentucky (1973)
We start off the South Region by having Virginia avenge their historical loss in the first round last year with a win over Gardner-Webb. Ole Miss is slightly favored over Oklahoma and either team is an okay pick. Oklahoma did however finish with more losses than wins during conference play.
The next two games are interesting in the potential chaos we might end up seeing during tournament play. All teams are within 100 EDM points of each other and this suggests that all four of these teams have a decent shot of winning two games and making the Sweet 16. Oregon who won their conference tournament as a surprise beats Wisconsin. Kansas State who won their conference over Kansas who had done it 13 years prior has the slight edge over UC Irvine who dominated their smaller conference.
The EDM has Saint Mary's upset last year's champions Villanova and this wouldn't be too much of a surprise given that in their last game they beat number one seed Gonzaga. Purdue and Tennessee should have comfortable wins over Old Dominion and Northern Kentucky. Cincinnati is perhaps a little underrated and have a great chance of moving to the next round given Iowa has been trending down as of late.
Round of 32
1 Virginia (3158) beats 8 Ole Miss (2014)
4 Kansas State (2398) beats 12 Oregon (2375)
3 Purdue (2575) beats 11 Saint Mary's (2479)
2 Tennessee (2689) beats 7 Cincinnati (2440)
Virginia looks to have a very strong advantage over Ole Miss or Oklahoma in the second round. Kansas State is the strongest out of the group of 4 that we mentioned earlier. For those looking for a bold choice, Oregon isn't a bad pick. For those looking for a little more upside, UC Irvine is a little riskier but they are definitely capable.
Purdue and Saint Mary's looks to be a close game. Purdue is the safer pick and probably a good hedge against Villanova winning their first round game. Tennessee looks to have the edge over Cincinnati with a predicted 2 point edge. Picking either team makes sense here, but Tennessee does have a higher ceiling than Cincinnati based on their resume.
Sweet 16
1 Virginia (3158) beats 4 Kansas State (2398)
2 Tennessee (2689) beats 3 Purdue (2575)
Virginia is the favorite against Kansas State. Since all four teams out of the sector could face Virginia, the safe and smart pick is to pick Virginia to go to the next round simply due to the lower probabilities of the other teams that could make it to this round. Tennessee edges Purdue to make it to the regional final. Again, Tennessee has more upside and Purdue's 3 point shooting makes them a riskier pick further into the tournament.
Elite 8
1 Virginia (3158) beats 2 Tennessee (2689)
Tennessee is definitely a step up in the competition based on what Virginia has seen so far, but in terms of close games, Tennessee has seen more close games than Virginia has seen to this point. Given Virginia's recent history of falling early, you may want to pick Tennessee. But that history could also give you a little more upside against other brackets than your regular number one seed.
The Midwest Region
Opening Round
1 North Carolina (3044) beats 16 Iona (1630)
8 Utah State (2551) beats 9 Washington (2069)
5 Auburn (2609) beats 12 New Mexico State (2551)
4 Kansas (2201) beats 13 Northeastern (2071)
6 Iowa State (2412) beats 11 Ohio State (1894)
3 Houston (2898) beats 14 Georgia State (1820)
7 Wofford (2693) beats 10 Seton Hall (2051)
2 Kentucky (2760) beats 15 Abilene Christian (1858)
It should be no surprise that we do not pick another 16 seed upset this year. North Carolina beats Iona. Utah State is favored to beat Washington and Washington although it has had its moments, they have some bewildering losses, including one to the horrid California (1050).
Auburn has the edge over New Mexico State, but again the temptation of the 12 seed shows up here yet again. Kansas edges Northeastern, but not because Northeastern is particularly good this year but more so that Kansas is having a really down year. Iowa State should beat an Ohio State that has limped into the tournament field. Only St. John's looks to be a weaker at-large team. Also as an Ohio State fan, I can tell you that they are weaker than most of the competition at this tournament. Iowa State comes into the game on a winning streak.
Houston was one of the hottest teams in the country prior to their recent loss to Cincinnati. That being said they should have no issue beating Georgia State. Wofford looks to have the edge against Seton Hall and they are an elite three point shooting team that has the potential to go far in the tournament. Kentucky faces a stronger 15 seed in Abilene Christian but they should make it to the next round.
Round of 32
1 North Carolina (3044) beats 8 Utah State (2551)
5 Auburn (2609) beats 4 Kansas (2201)
3 Houston (2898) beats 6 Iowa State (2412)
2 Kentucky (2760) beats 7 Wofford (2693)
North Carolina looks likely to beat Utah State to reach the Sweet 16. However, Utah State looks like the strongest 8 seed and is the most likely to pull off the early upset in the second round. That being said, North Carolina is still the stronger team and picking any 8 or 9 seed at this stage is very risky.
Auburn who is on an uptrend is the favorite against a weaker Kansas team. Given that Kansas could be upset in the first round, picking Auburn is probably a safer pick despite their tough first round game. Houston looks to be a strong favorite against Iowa State and Kentucky also looks to be the favorite against Wofford. Wofford is definitely the more dangerous team given that they are a more unknown quantity coming from a smaller conference.
Sweet 16
1 North Carolina (3044) beats 5 Auburn (2609)
3 Houston (2898) beats 2 Kentucky (2760)
North Carolina faces its toughest test yet, but from a probability standpoint, they are a better team to select given Auburn could easily lose to New Mexico State in the first round. However, for those looking for a one seed upset, Auburn winning here isn't the worst choice.
Houston is slightly favored to beat Kentucky, Kentucky is definitely the more popular and talented team, which gives the Houston pick better upside if they can hold form to this point of the tourney.
Regional Final
1 North Carolina (3044) beats 3 Houston (2898)
Houston is not a bad team to pick to go on a Final Four run. This game is expected to be a close one. EDM likes North Carolina to beat Houston, but the upside alone might be worth picking Houston. There was a noticeable gap between the elite teams and the rest of the field. Both of these teams are elite teams. North Carolina has the benefit of being a little more safer while Houston has the benefit of a little more upside.
Final Four
National Semifinal
1 Gonzaga (3608) beats 1 Duke (3068)
1 Virginia (3158) beats 1 North Carolina (3044)
You might be disappointed by the lack of non-1 seeds at this point in the tournament, but these teams have earned their seeds and this year has featured more top-heavy teams than other years. Gonzaga beats Duke in a good rematch. Gonzaga beat Duke in their first matchup that featured both teams at full strength. Virginia beats North Carolina in what is expected to be a good game. Virginia were the winners in their previous matchup in February.
National Championship
1 Gonzaga (3608) beats 1 Virginia (3158)
The EDM projects Gonzaga to be national champions for the first time in their history. Gonzaga is the lowest ranked number one seed which makes this a solid value pick while most folks will pick the ACC teams. Gonzaga was simply at a different tier on the EDM this year due to the absolute dominance of their schedule. Many folks will look to their loss to Saint Mary's as a point of weakness, but this team has shown it can beat the best and spent three months without a loss until that game. The loss against Saint Mary's happened at the best time as more folks will want to pick against Gonzaga than pick them to run the table.
That's all for today. Hopefully you found that analysis interesting and a change of pace from the harder math in prior posts. This is the final long-form post of Model Madness for this year, but I plan on a series of smaller blog posts detailing my brackets fall from perfection. Thanks for reading!
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