Australian Federal Election 2019 Week 4 ~ Faites Vos Jeux

The opinion polls have often been unsuccessful in predicting the Federal election outcome. The usual results are in favour of a Labor victory and the preferred Prime Minister being the Coalition leader. Figure that one out. As the Turf Accountants make a living from reliable intelligence I present the betting odds instead. These are the odds for each party as collected by OddsChecker:
Note that the only party with a candidate in each seat is the United Australia Party.
The odd are shortening for the Coalition and drifting for Labor.

Party/Bookmaker	Bet365	Bet(easy)	Sportsbet	TAB
Labor	1.28	1.22	1.22	1.28
Coalition	3.60	4.00	4.25	3.50
One Nation			251.00	151.00
Australian Conservatives			251.00	101.00
United Australia Party			401.00
Greens		501.00	201.00	201.00
Centre Alliance			501.00
Katters Australian Party			501.00
Christian Democratic Party			751.00

This is a week that is full of public holidays and the Sydney Easter Show. The Show showcases farming, engineering and farm skills from around Australia as well as supplying a fairground and evening fireworks. There are incredible murals made from all sorts of farm produce.

Bill Shorten (Labor) is incredibly confident about winning the election as he revealed his intentions for his first day in office, and what he was going to do in the next 100 days. I hope the merry-go-round that he was riding at the time wasn't making him dizzy.

I remember that the opinion polls made Hilary Clinton so confident that she booked a venue with a glass ceiling, and fireworks, to celebrate her election as president.

The Coalition has already made a fait accompli by presenting its budget just days before the election was announced, leaving Labor in catch up mode. Labor has announced some of its budget plans if elected and Bill Shorten has promised that there will be no new taxes. There will be changes to existing taxes that will raise the money Labor needs to feed its promises.

Age pension with medical benefits is a privilege and not a right in Australia. Pensions are decreased or stopped if a person earns more than a certain amount or has a large superannuation fund. Superannuation funding is thus a very sensitive issue. Bill Shorten has for some time announced proposed changes to superannuation law and will impose them if elected. There are four basic changes affecting 1,180,000 people and raising between $30 billion and $34 billion. From this huge sum women will be given a paltry $4 million to top up their super. The Coalition leader told voters “because Bill Shorten and Chris Bowen can’t manage money, they’re going to come after yours”.

The Greens propose re-introducing death duties of up to 45% and can expect to lose the country vote.

The Coalition is expected to attack Labor on its target to half carbon emissions by 2030. ANU professor Warwick McKibbin has estimated that a target of 45% would reduce Gross Domestic Product by 0.7%. 

Every political party has its Department Of Dirty Tricks where they use every possible ploy to destroy any opposition political candidate or sometimes even sitting politicians. The modus operandi is based on Winston Churchill’s  Dirty Trick Squad or the Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare, propaganda division, and refined over the years as psychological warfare became an exact science. The clichés ‘Alls fair in politics and war’ and ‘The ends justify the means’ almost pale in comparison to what dastardly deeds are executed.

The Labor Party has parachuted a surprise foreigner from Brisbane, Ali France, into the electorate of  Dickson, Queensland, as a killer candidate opposing the sitting member Peter Dutton (Coalition ~ Minister for Home Affairs). It is normal for a prospective candidate to move to the seat that they wish to represent. Ms France, an activist and amputee, replaces a disappointed Linda Lavarch who stood in the 2016 election. Ms France has vocally opposed Shorten and the Labor policy on immigration but has promised to toe the Labor policy line and also move to Dickson if elected.

Dutton’s manner tends to polarise opinion of him and he has an unpopular portfolio making him a prime target for the Dirty Trick Squad. The interview with the Australian Newspaper where the paper first asked Ms France why she hadn’t moved, and then asked Dutton for his opinion on why she hadn’t moved is quite contrived. Dutton was caught off guard and gave a politically incorrect answer, for which he has now apologised. Unfortunately a lot of mud was thrown at him and some is bound to stick.

Clive Palmer (UAP) is doing well in the marginal seats and may even win double figure seats. He has impressed the Coalition into considering having his party as a second preference on their how-to-vote leaflets.

Shorten (Labor) has promised to re-organise temporary work visas (457) which are being rorted by unscrupulous employers and upsetting the trade unions. Morrison (Coalition) is between a rock and a hard place here. Staying on immigration, the Coalition will reduce immigration to a more sustainable level.

The election advertising has been disappointing with the usual Labor complaining that the Coalition is robbing the poor to pay the rich, and the Coalition complaining that Labor will spend taxpayers money like a spoilt child. Only Palmer has touched on sensitive issues with some flair.

Thanks for reading such a dull subject.

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