Science Funding - Bubbles

in #science7 years ago (edited)


[Classic phases of a mania]


“I can calculate the movement of stars, but not the madness of men.”

Sir. Isaac Newton, 1720 [1]

One of the less illustrious passages of Sir. Isaac Newton's life was the one that marked his life during 1720. At that time England was taken by a frenezy of investment. The now known South Sea Bubble. He predicted the bubble, benefited and still lost it all. He prohibited his friends from ever reminding him of such episode ever again.[1]

The biggest science funding strategies so far obey cycles of alarm, boom, and bust. What some call bubbles. When there's a major problem identified someone rings the alarm and massive resources pour into the system creating a boom that ends with a bust in what's called loops of positive feedback.

Science funding cycles:

  • From WWII to 1957 (all fields with possible millitary applications) mostly in physics
  • From 1957 to 1970 when the sputnik-1 was launched
  • From 1981 to early 1990's with the cold war
  • From late 1990's to 2001 with the internet
  • From 1998 to 2008 biomedical research for NIHs
  • From 2008 till present due to hackers and AI[2][3]

Sustained growth comes from a sequential response in feedback loops.

Feedback

The biggest problem at the moment I presume is lack of good feedback. Roughly speaking, borrowing from biology there are two kinds of feedback: Negative and Positive

Negative feedback

is a process that allows Homeostasis by sending a signal to the source an decreasing the input till an equilibrium is set. The body temperature in the hypothalamus is controlled by a complex negative feedback system to maintain the temperature in a controlled range, not too high or not too low.

Positive feedback

on the other hand, amplifies a signal until the resources in the system grow exponentially until the input and resources have been exhausted. This is, for instance, the case of childbirth, where the baby pushed the pelvis this increase stimulates the production of oxytocin, that makes the contractions stronger pushing the baby down even more, until the baby is out, normally.


At the moment most of it is Positive feedback loops. The system is successful but not stable.

If you increase research funding automatically you would increase the number of slots for PhDs and postdocs regardless of an increase or not of demand for these positions. At the same time, research budgets have grown but grant success rates have declined.

[Alyson Hurt/NPR National Science Foundation: Science and Engineering Indicators 2014]

Most funding comes as research assistants on research grants. In what's called Baumol's cost disease.

[Positive feedback loop with incomplete negative feedback]


- NSF: 86% supported grad students
- NIH: 78% suported grad students & postdocs[4]

The negative feedback to stabilize comes mostly from researchers abandoning academia, which is a net negative for research.

[Source: Declining success rate despite growth in budgets ]

All these cycles have a consequence, the prospects of work and education will not be there when the rate of increase in funding stabilizes to no fault of their own.

Universities, when faced with these booms, become less risk averse "leveraging up" debt by constructing more research facilities or remodel labs, paying more for their faculty. If their expectations of future funding are not met they can face financial crisis.[5]


The Problem With Markets

Me ranting about markets in science is a trend but is an even more important subject of the day. Allocating finite resources is the purpose of the economy. Most theory mandates that in order for markets to be efficient they must trade freely and be self-interested. Here lies the main problem. Markets are extremely subjective.

As you might remember, one of the main reasons science works is due to control of subjectivity. Unfortunately in the case of economics self-interest makes every task a gamble. Thus the reason for the existence of futures contracts.

Who funds research?

source [Normal procedure for budget definition hierarchy]

Some money comes form private institutions, perhaps the best example of this has been Bell Labs that gave us such advancements as the transistor, but the vast majority comes from gubernamental organizations.

The NIH funds provides almost 2/3 of all research that flows to universities. Whose budget adjusted to inflation depended on sustained uncontrolled growth in order to keep filled the continuously growing positions at universities.[6]

[Figures for 2014 are preliminary. Figures for 2000-2013 have been adjusted for inflation using the Biomedical Research and Development Price Index. Federal stimulus funds in 2009-2010 came from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.NPR analysis of NIH data; NIH (PDF: 2000-2013, 2014); recovery.nih.gov]

This science budget has many points of competition. First against civil groups (banks, churches, hospitals, labor unions...every social group you can think of). Later by particular organizations out of the branches of science.

Biomedical sciences have far stronger support than other areas of scientific research. Mainly due to the fact that voluntary organizations care deeply and passionately about research for diseases. They are usually conformed of patients and their family.

This is one of the reasons sporadic possible consequences for humans found during research are so interesting for researchers. Even if their research is not related to or intended humans at all, as is a big opportunity for funding.

Politics and passionate interest are a huge bottleneck for funding. This is problematic since even when there are scientific societies that advocate for public policy most of the time researchers remain on the sidelines.

Is almost infuriating as one would imagine science being generally a virtuous cause, more dependent on public funding and filled with highly educated people that could make a stronger case when compared to other interests (if one assumes that science stimulates long term the economy and benefits mankind).

Most scientists are not affiliated with a professional society with an advocacy program. Is a must. Public advocacy programs in most countries are a novelty for professional scientists. Being part of one means being active in it, which is now easier than ever thanks to social media.[7]

Transparency of local funding for grant applications and courtesy habits like a printed thank you letter to elected officials help, as is part of the social layer that is politics. Politicians tend to be poorly educated in the sciences and this is another part of science communication. One that is severely neglected.[8]

How grants work?

Most grants are of the focused research type. Someone submits a project and a limited funding is given for that project alone.

Some of the problems with preselected focus are:

  • It may become apparent after beginning that it will take longer to produce any result than originally expected without being able to backtrack the grant.
  • An interesting finding may remain unexplored unless somehow there's some extra money left from the original project.
  • Like in any other system with strict focus bottlenecks form and 50% of a scientist time can be spent writing grants.

  • The relationship of the science's quality and the ability to maintain continuous support has become almost stochastic.
  • Lack of interdisciplinary contact between scientists is a breeding ground for things like the examples depicted in the image.[9]
  • Requirements for scheduled results and previously supported data


In the case of A, a high impact journal publishes in the 1990's a doctor rediscovering integration[10] (highschool calculus). In the case of B a physicist rediscovered mathematical group theory, which is kind of cool.[11].

This system furthers active areas of research but stagnates and even hurts cutting-edge discoveries. Cutting edge discoveries usually benefit form open-ended funding. Where the person is funded not the project.

Interdisciplinary science funding and planning are a must.


REFERENCES:

Images referenced, sourced or modified from google images, labeled for reuse

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Very interesting.

I think that governments should more or less get out of the way of scientific research (Aka they should remove taxes and stuff like that). Research should be as stable as possible because its supposed to benefit a large section of mankind to actually be able to know and use the "products" of the research. It would also be better overall for governments to universally fund these research efforts.

Of course this also extends to things like the public and the media attention. What gets researched should not be subject to the media attention or the public interest but rather how important this research is to the scientific community.

I may be a programmer, but I also have a master's degree in chemical engineering and was planning to become a chemist before I ended up leaving college early. While I don't think academia was for me in the end, I still try to support it as much as possible. The things that I do in my job as a developer are directly effected by the research that is being done in these labs.

I think the problem lies with governments. Even with governments bubbles appear. When gates and finite resources appear people become cheaters. What is needed in my opinion and this would require testing is a system of funding exclusively for the most promising researchers and a system of absolute transparency for everyone else.

In the close future research could be more democratized thanks to programming but it would be more like reading or writing are taken for granted today. So interdisciplinary development is super important as is the future. Thanks for passing by and reading. :)

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Isn't it better with bubbles? You gotta prove that stable growth is better. Maybe bubbles create things that otherwise you wouldn't have made.

Yes, but is a tax on the researchers. Bubbles are productive in research, as they are almost everywhere else. The real problem of railroad manias is that while they are great for building infrastructure, as the growth is not planned waste a huge portion of human capital when the bubble ends.

This is seen in deflationary systems and inflationary systems alike. When homeostasis breaks the whole system undergoes a shock, that in the economy is seen as Depression and in research is researchers abandoning academia.

Where has you been?, I missed your posts. Thanks for your writing!

Nowhere. I just took some time off due to a slight twitter adiction. But of course you already know that.

Because of human nature.

The economy is simply human activity.

And human activity often involves mania and irrational exuberance.

This is how bubbles happen.

A stable economy is an economy which is not free.

The problem with an economy that is not free is that it does not function as well as an economy that is free.

Therefore what we have is the worst system except for all the rest.

What we can do and what we do have power over is how intense the boom and bust cycle is. Are politicians doing enough to ensure that intensity is reduced, or too much to ensure that it is increased?

Well, that could be the case for normal economic activities. In the case of scientific research, which is what I'm interested, is affected by the economy but it produces results that are not economic in nature. Most big projects couldn't be organized without massive governmental funding. Darpa, Apollo missions, without patronage this probably wouldn't exist. It could change in the future but so far it doesn't seem feasible.

Interesting article. Every bubble brings innovation somehow though, it is part of the emotional human nature.

If you take your time to READ beyond the article's title you will find that is not about Bitcoin. Is about Biomedical research funding. Remove your spam or I'll flag you.

I did read the article, I was talking about bitcoin on purpose as it is considered to be a bubble in the making, to have a simple exchange of opinions in the comment section.

I could be wrong but is kind of odd that you comment Bitcoin in something that has marginally anything to do with the subject. I'm not fond of Finance talk in science unless it apports something interesting to the subject.

I normally ignore spam, but the effort in your comment was too big to ignore to almost completely dismiss the entire article. Could be your only point of interest in the article and that's fine yet I find it highly unlikely from my perspective, I could be wrong but that's the reason I have not flagged you yet.

To avoid any further misunderstanding, I'll do this out of game theoretical reasons. Last warning, remove or change your comments (to something about the subject of the article, even if disrespectful or contrarian) or I'll flag ALL your comments and posts from now on. 100% serious.

Sorry for a little off-topic question, what do you use for the text formatting?

The anecdote about the Newton - priceless...

I use a couple of tools:

  1. Hackmd.io
    Is a markdown editor that supports HTML. It shows coloring for code like python. It requires basic HTML knowledge.
  2. QuickTextPaste
    Is a freeware tool that allows me to input prewritten HTML commands with quick access buttons.
  3. ezgif.com and giphy.com
    Both platforms where I can convert videos into .gif edit them only and even combine them.
  4. Markdown to HTML online converters
    Just as it says.
  5. LaTex image editor
    For modifiable images that hold mathematical equations.

I'll make a detailed post about this in the close future.

That's what's up.

thats human nature and FOMO makes it interesting.

FOMO in grants application? elaborate.

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great information

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I like your science post.

This is very educational @ertwro ! I love it I am learning. :0
Resteemed.

An other problem that you have not mention is the significant amount of research money injected in the reviewing of all applications. Having had access to some numbers, I was actually super-chocked :(

Yes, is a super fastidious process. The bureaucracy expenditure of it is huge.

Really nice and interesting topic