I haven't time to read your whole post right now, but here's a cute little idea that popped into my head as I was reading timcliff's post: https://steemit.com/curation/@biophil/a-cute-idea-for-curation-rewards
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its interesting. If im understand right, you want to people to either be eligible for SP incentives, or curation rewards.
Pre HF-16 i think this actually might have worked pretty well. AORN, however, im not sure that there is actually enough SP incentive money being produced to make it a real alternative.
Yes, that's the basic notion.
And I think I agree with your second paragraph; but it would be worth looking into how big typical whale curation earnings are. In my days as top curator, I was earning around 50% APR effectively. My clients were getting considerably less; say 20%. They were all top-25 best curators. So I need to look into it closer, but I wouldn't be surprised if all but the top 100 curators are earning less than 10% on their curation.