1(Primary)
The primary trend generally lasts between 9 months and 2 years, and is a reflec tion of investors’ attitudes toward unfolding fundamentals in the business cycle. The business cycle extends statistically from trough to trough for approximately 3.6 years, so it follows that rising and falling primary trends (bull and bear markets) last for 1 to 2 years. Since building up takes longer than tearing down, bull markets generally last longer than bear markets. The direction of the secular or very long-term trend will also affect the magnitude and duration of a primary trend. Those that move in the direction of the secular trend will generally experience greater magnitude and duration than those that move in the opposite direction.
The primary trend is illustrated in Figure 1.1 by the thickest line. In an idealized situation, the primary uptrend (bull market) is the same size as the primary downtrend (bear market), but in reality, of course, their magnitudes are different. Because it is very important to position both (short-term) trades and (long-term) investments in the direction of the main trend, a significant part of this book is concerned with identifying reversals in the primary trend.|column1|column2|column3|
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