BTC Technical analysis on Daily & Weekly: Pros Vs Cons for a continuation of the Down Trend / Why I shorted the Bitcoin?

Still 7 and a half weeks before November 7 to reach 10K in 77 days, lol 777

I have already shared a post with more details bellow.
https://www.publish0x.com/the-king-of-crypto/btc-technical-analysis-on-daily-and-weekly-bottom-speculatio-xgjjyzk

I took a short on BTC for several reasons:

The downward trend in Weekly and Daily.
Liquidation spikes from 19.9K
Inflation.
DXY up, S&P500 down.

If it's a manipulation of Sell to Buy, I will close my Short Poisiton if I see that we come back above 20K

TP1: $19,777 (reached) / TP2: $19,277 / TP3: $18,777 / TP4: $17,777 / TP5 at 15% of the position if we go lower in strength.

My biggest passion is trading but I feel more secure with the investment although not enough given the risks like the volatility of the crypto market and the projects that appear and disappear, my goal is to learn and understand the market, I'm not trying to predict the future or trying to find a secret indicator but just learning on the tchart every day to increase the chances of probabilities and take high quality trades.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/xPpMHLTy/

BTC 1W.png

The Daily bearish divergence on BTC is confirmed after the RSI and MA62 broke below 50.

Buyers Lose Momentum on the MACD and Soon Sellers Will Take Over!

We almost filled the gap between $21,900 and $23,100 to close on 61.8% fibo before being rejected bellow

Lots of liquidity to take below 18.5K given the double Bottom and the long stops to be triggered to seek the next support at 17.6K with even more long stops which have been trapped since June 18

Support at 18.5K can hold or not?
If we have a close below 18.5K with strength, it's possible to do after a pull back and then the continuation of the Weekly downtrend, or possible no pull back and fall directly, and the scenario I expect the least is the return above 20K to still trap the shorts above 23K

My predictions, and it's only probabilities nothing is guaranteed!!!
50%: We will go lower than 18.5K but with a pull back.
30%: Fall directly without pull back
20%: Close above 20K to seek 23.1K

https://www.tradingview.com/x/b7xQ9eVA/

BTC 1D.png

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