Hello everyone,
There has been a lot of discussion regarding the EOS token sale and game theory. It is time we take a poll to see what everyone thinks. This information will obviously create a feedback loop and may change your strategy or maybe suggest you rethink your assumptions.
Comment below with your opinions!
It would be nice if I could create polls directly on steemit!
Invest in Bitshares. EOS ICO will be a year long, BTS might make you millions in that time frame due to the upcoming Billion Dollar Challenge (see @stan's blog) - the goal is to make Bitshares a TRILLION dollar decentralized company.
Then, take your earnings, borrow against you acct balance and invest in EOS on the secondary market. You might buy the shares at a more expensive price, however you will be able to buy a whole lot more of them.
I'm trying this right now with HERO. It is very, very interesting. If the liquidity Stan is hoping for comes into the DEX buying BTS now could be a huge wealth creator.
The idea is to get people to buy BTS to back HERO correct? What is the underlying goal? Just to bring up the value of the BitShares chain by funnelling wealth to it? What happens when the desired value is reached? People receive BTS? BitUSD? Do they essentially cash out and dump?
First i've heard of HERO. Trying to figure out what the underlying goal is in the long term.
Is there a post that goes into more detail?
The goal is to bootstrap HERO into a mainstream currency. For those with a high risk tolerance, this means buying BTS and using it as collateral to issue HERO into existence. Those with a low risk tolerance, can simply acquire HERO to use it as a 5% APR savings account.
Contribute multiple times during a day. It seems to be the best option. And also multiple times during the year. If you go all-in you must know that the markets are ruthless and EOS should be considered as a long haul investment.
You have the most influence by contributing in the morning. Best strategy is just decide how much you want to invest and contribute a percentage each day. Don't worry about gaming, it will average out. I did the AGS funding for months and tried it all. Just contribute a fixed amount over a period of time and don't worry too much.
I can't see how multiple times during a day could possibly be better than either all at the beginning or all and the end.
Neither do I, believe me.
I would like to see EOS tokens available for sale on the Bitshares DEX, but unfortunately, the DEX isn't really able to do the distribution properly since each day the value will be determined by the volume commited.
C.
I think that "believers" should contribute as early in the day as possible, lots of people will underestimate the true value of eos and will not participate if the "believers" flock on early.
Assuming a multi-day auction, and assuming that there is an intention to purchase say X amount of the good that is auctioned (whatever that is) ... I would contribute once per day, same amount of X/N, over a long period of N days.
As the pattern is easily spotted, I would also signal it by announcing my intention.
What I'm not sure about is whether to commit to the signal or not. There might be some reasonable circumstances where I should not commit - e.g., where it is clear that the secondary market is cheaper.
Watch the whole hype, the disappointment dump (impatience), buy after it.
This strategy's advantage is that you learn a lot about the project meanwhile. And if you think it's future proof, put your faith in, and buy when there's blood in the streets. Otherwise move your focus to the next interesting project.
As long as you're confident there will be blood in the streets. :)
Yes, the only question is what a project will be capable of right until the sale or the start of its open trade. It should be enough to keep the price at a point at least. But in this industry that is very hard.
I think at the end of the day. It means there is no feeding frenzy and if you are in that day you are in
I already have my buy order on BTS, if you could just fill that it would make things a lot easier :)
EOS is going to be huge...going to change the game. Looking forward to it. Thanks for the great info!
I like what agoras has been doing. There are periodical openings allowing speculation to ease out. the price is also more stable and everyone that is interested can get in. I think it has been going for over a year now, on and off.
All-in in the first round so you don't need to think about it for a year.
Multiple times in one day or year.
I don't really care about the details - I trust you give your best to make it bulletproof against the incumbent system. If that can be achieved - we all win regardless, and we can help others to become winners as well in a system that is still optimized to create losers every time fiat is used for value exchange.
I agree 100%
Given the hype, I'll go for buying in the secondary markets when the hype is gone. Could take 3-6 months though.
Seconded that being able to create polls on Steemit would be great.
Why would secondary be cheaper than crowdsale, given that crowdsale is continually selling shares through an entire year?
My guess is that price will be high due to high demand, and will drop once demand lowers further down the road. This is just a guess.
I mostly agree, but for a whole year the crowdsale will be happening at the same time as EOS is trading on the secondary markets. The crowdsale price will adjust to match the market price.
I must admit that I am not fully aware to the token sale details. Regardless, I am interested in what EOS can bring.
Contribute first at start of day
It's best to invest towards the end of year. During launch the hype will be overwhelming, whales will come and buy truck loads. Buy it later after the hype dies down, prices will stabilise
Buy at secondary market using BTC/Steem/BTS after 7-9 month of token sale.
You've read bits of my post on the matter, so you already know my answer is "the optimal bidding strategy is unclear." I hope that this ends up meaning that on average, all strategies are equally good.
I suspect that all strategies will basically average out to the same return. Particularly on days 6-365, waiting until the end of the day gives you the advantage of knowing when not to contribute, but you still don't know for sure. The new bidder safeguards that I've heard about for end-of-day bids should help end-of-day bids not to be too bad.
On the other hand, even if the auction is competitive after the first 5 days, the crowdsale price can't rise above the market price on average - so there's no downside (again, on average) to contributing at the start of the day.
Arbitrage will wipe out any systematic advantage that the secondary markets offer. You might get lower-variance pricing on the secondary markets, but mean pricing should be the same.
Of course, there very well could be some cognitive biases at play which will make one of the above strategies significantly better than others. In addition, there are other forces at work. EOS employees, for example, will probably favor buying in the crowdsale over buying on secondary markets - which could push crowdsale prices above secondary market prices.
We need poll directly on steemit. Someone please make one.
Nice post! What will happening, if someone resteem your post?
Under the status quo, if probably contribute multiple times.
Hi dan, looking forward to your new project. Have yet not thought about this question. Will you offer a detailed "how to participate in the token sale" material?
It is time we take a poll that can see what everyone is thinking about here. And obviously we have to create it all.
meep
Buy all my tokens on the 6th day :p
Thank you for posting @dantheman.
Have been giving this some thought myself.......
a. Contribute at the start of the day.....if this does not work out....
b. Wait until the end of the day.......
Will you be conducting a poll at Slack or does it have that capability?
Am wondering whether it is best to put the amount set aside all in at once or in increments.......timing is key.
All the best to you and your endeavors. Cheers.
what is eos?
EOS.IO Technical White Paper
Cover your eyes, say a little prayer, then buy on the secondary markets.
Some people are saying they believe the EOS ICO could be a big threat to the ecosystem.
As long as we can buy them on an exchange then the price can never exceed what folks are willing to pay.
If they are put out in a crowdsale as described without freely trading on a market then some folks will get priced out of the market.
I don't like using ethereum, but understand the reasoning.
Maybe bittrex, or tradeqwik will make a steem trading pair for us so we don't have to use ethereum.
Openledger will almost certainly.
I can't put an app on this computer,.... :-(
I've got to get on there, right now I can't put an app on this computer.
I initially was trying to spread my Keth across several rounds, but I have changed my strategy to increase or decrease my participation based on price.
I have no idea. I should be more interested in maximizing my profit. I'll work on this.
Cool article, thank you for posting. Followed and upvoted! :)
Buy multiple times throughout the year
I was following the EOS sale over the last weeks. I always compared the price from kraken to the EOS sale one and noticed that there is not much difference to be honest. Yes there were a couple of hours at kraken where EOS was trading for $6 but that was just silly.
So basically at this stage I would buy them at kraken since there is not much difference between them but that might change over the coming months. Longer the sale is on better chances to get a bargain
Buy 6 months ago and forget about it. Best strategy, I'm doing alright with it =D
(I am actually also day-avarage buying, every day I chip in something)
“The first thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers.”
― William Shakespeare, King Henry VI, Part 2