Genuine investors could be deterred by an excessive amount of speculative buying as they may foresee a potentially large price correction when the speculators decide to sell. Therefore, they may choose to wait until prices have fallen.

Beyond a certain price-point I suspect you are correct with potential 'long term' investors, not buying in. What price that cut-off is, varies according to many factors, resulting in difficulty to closely predict. I guess the hint will be, when we see Hive suddenly being moved here from exchanges in greater volume.