Thanks for the well reasoned analysis. I agree there seems to be an abundance of speculators on Hive and the increasing amount deposited on exchanges which you point out, is logical to avoid the power down delays to liquidity. I also agree with you that the lack of power ups and predominance of power downs also supports this.
I think you correctly point out while HIve has a large number of Apps and developers, we need that killer app that produces earnings like DeFi platforms similar to Cubfinance to incentivize locking up Hive in smart contracts, reduce the amount on exchanges, and increase it's scarcity to drive up price slowly and consistently. I am hoping for a CDP or AMM platform in the near future.
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I like the ideas of censorship resistance and to be able to earn from your content. However, it hasn't been a huge draw. It could be lack of concern about censorship. It could be that earnings have been so low people can't be bothered. A big thing is to get people to want to be here consistently without being overly concerned about payouts. It might simply be that Hive is too small. Once our user base has reached some sort of critical mass. It might grow very rapidly. This would ultimately attract investors who are less concerned about bull runs and more concerned about a quality long term investment.