I don't have a first damn clue!
We can do a thought experiment though. We have good plotting tools available and I want to test the hypothesis to see, what a tepid remaining sale looks like, and also what a full pre-sale sold out looks like. Here we go!
As of the time of writing this draft, the following table, and the image above is the current pre-sale situation. We are about 20% sold for standard and legendary packs. However, alchemy packs are more popular due to better odd of black foils, and they are 50% sold.
Current Pack Sale Statistics (as of May 8, 2025)
| Pack Type | Total Supply | Packs Sold | Packs Remaining | Price (DEC) | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 500,000 | 104,408 | 395,592 | 4,000 | $4.00 |
| Alchemy | 100,000 | 50,887 | 49,113 | 12,000 | $12.00 |
| Legendary | 50,000 | 9,986 | 40,014 | 24,000 | $24.00 |
| Total | 650,000 | 165,281 | 484,719 | - | - |
Projection
If the current rate of pack sale goes on and tomorrow the sale increases at 1.5X the current rate and the final day 2X the current rate, then we won't sale out! Following would be the final projected table. That is a potential but unlikely outcome in my opinion. I have participated in many pre-scale and the sales growth is exponential is the last day/hour.
Projected Final Pre-Sale Table (by May 11, 2025)
This assume linear growth
| Pack Type | Total Supply | Projected Packs Sold | Projected Packs Remaining | Percentage Sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 500,000 | 116,358 | 383,642 | 23.3% |
| Alchemy | 100,000 | 59,153 | 40,847 | 59.2% |
| Legendary | 50,000 | 11,196 | 38,804 | 22.4% |
| Total | 650,000 | 186,707 | 463,293 | 28.7% |
What the sale need to be to sale out
Assuming exponential growth
This is the scenario, where I am assuming two things
- packs will sell out
- sale growth will be exponential during the reminder of the sale
Allowing those assumptions, for the remaining time, we can think about an exponential sales growth scenario like this table.
| Date & Time | Standard Packs | Alchemy Packs | Legendary Packs | Total Packs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 10:30–16:29 | 177 | 22 | 18 | 217 |
| May 8, 16:30–22:29 | 330 | 41 | 33 | 404 |
| May 8, 22:30–May 9, 04:29 | 617 | 77 | 62 | 756 |
| May 9, 04:30–10:29 | 1,153 | 143 | 117 | 1,413 |
| May 9, 10:30–16:29 | 2,154 | 267 | 218 | 2,639 |
| May 9, 16:30–22:29 | 4,023 | 500 | 407 | 4,930 |
| May 9, 22:30–May 10, 04:29 | 7,516 | 933 | 760 | 9,209 |
| May 10, 04:30–10:29 | 14,045 | 1,744 | 1,420 | 17,209 |
| May 10, 10:30–16:29 | 26,236 | 3,258 | 2,653 | 32,147 |
| May 10, 16:30–22:29 | 48,990 | 6,084 | 4,956 | 60,030 |
| May 10, 22:30–May 11, 01:00 | 290,351 | 36,044 | 29,370 | 355,765 |
| Total | 395,592 | 49,113 | 40,014 | 484,719 |
It is hard to accurately plot this while the clock is ticking, but it would look something like this
This doesn't assume accurate remaining time. But just shows the nature of the curve. The reason I plotted this, because if you look at it, you correctly will think in the reminder of the time, perhaps it is hard to get the standard packs to sell out. It would be a lot of sale. However, it is likely that alchemy and legendary packs can sell out.
If I plot alchemy and legendary packs separately the curves are a bit easier to read. Again, it doesn't follow the timeline exactly, because as I write this post, time is running away. But I will try.
This is a more accurate representation with a closer timeline. Hopefully, I will be able to track where does the final sale lands.
We will not sell out the pre-sale. Alchemy packs may sell out, but otherwise it doesn't look possible.
There you have it. A prediction! :)
Here is the current status as of now
Splinterlands Conclave Arcana Pre-Sale: Pack Sales and Remaining (May 9, 2025, 2:39 PM CDT)
Also here is the current performance of the exponential model for alchemy and legendary pack sales.
I doubt that the presale will sell out but my guess would be 40% standard, 70% alchemy and 35% on legendary packs. That will be about 2B DEC with half locked to the Dao just in case.
A very reasonable prediction. Let's see in 2 days
Sunday will be a fun day to watch the leaderboard 🍿.
Need to see if i spend my last DEC into packs or land choices choices....
Make a bet beaker! Are we going to sell out?
a bet.... i think we are not going to sell out... but a close finish even-though it does not look like it now.
SPS is on the move if that continues we will see some fireworks imho.
90% will be sold BAM there you have it
And what are your expectations?
I want us to sell out :)
I see you on the leaderboards. Good luck on getting Black foils and the raffle :)
Thank you
i'd be surprised if it sold out. Somewhat positively for the DAO, but negatively for me since I'll have relatively less chances to win something in the raffle - not that they're big to begin with.
Congrats to 6th place by the way - do you plan on trying to keep it? Might be hard, with vugtis still inbound.
I doubled my stake today. Had a few good months at the bakery, so I had some money left over for this. 100 Alchemy packs and 20 Legendary are mine, plus 204 Standard. Some HIVE rewards are pending, so maybe I'll be able to get the standards to 250.
why?
If the pre-sale sold out that is great for the DAO.
No I will not be on the top 6 leaderboard
That was an understatement as rhetorical figure 😅 And yes, it would be very good for them, and hence for the whole game as it will give them funds for future extensions and marketing and such - if they don't get mad with success and hence spend unwisely, but I guess we have treasurers to keep an eye on that, don't we? ;-)
Yes. I am one of the treasures :)
Guilty as charged!
It's going to be exciting either way. I'm looking forward to popping some packs open.
I'll purchase a few more but I also want to up my $SPS stake. I can see a lot of starter packs in my future, after the presale.
You still have time. I haven't finished my shopping yet :)
That's pretty crazy considering the presale on some of the other ones sold out in like hours or days compared to the sales lately. I guess it shows how much the space has changed as well as people's wallets and their motivation. This feels more like people buying it because they like the game versus people aping in because they think they can flip it for a quick buck.
Because of incentives, however this model is better
Nice to see every packs will be sold out. Conclave Arcana is a success!
I have no idea if it is or it isn't
Would love to see people opening CA packs. I am as excited to see these cards in action. Vonak!
Me too
Part of me is tempted to buy 5 legendary packs. I have gotten a lot of upvotes for splinterlands curators. And this would be a chance to give something back to the game...Also I may finally get lucky and pull black foil legendary. But at the same time 120 eur is a lot of money for me so I am not sure if I should do it.
Buy alchemy packs with the same amount of money. Odds for BF cards are better