Originally I was thinking it was pretty much impossible to do it this time around but in 2025 there'd be a really good chance. Now I'm not so sure. ETH already made it half way there. I won't be surprised if it happens or gets very close.
However, there is also the issue of where a lot of this value is coming from. The narrative for the next bull run is clearly Corporate Reserve Balance sheets. We may even see banks themselves starting to acquire Bitcoin. Given this narrative, it's pretty hard to imagine a scenario where ETH somehow overtakes that wave of "institutional" money that is essentially locked in to Bitcoin only.
This could also be interpreted as a bearish scenario. If ETH overtakes BTC that would imply many of the original Bitcoin bulls jumped ship to ETH, leaving all the BTC in the hands of corporations and other potential bad actors. I don't like the sound of that.
Flip flopping AGAIN... I think the market fundamentals are in ETH's favor in certain aspects. Bitcoin's #1 job is censorship resistance and immutable value storage. In essence, Bitcoin should perform very well when crypto is under extreme attack from outside forces. Ethereum should perform very well when crypto is not under attack and many people are more interested in development and progressing forward.
It's gonna be super interesting no matter what happens honestly.
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Yea Bitcoin function is simple and yet so valuable. A world reserve currency.
Having the potential to bring in "old" money in, and keeps its tron.
What is an interesting question is the following:
Can crypto create value from within? How much "old" money do it needs?
Can you imagine new value being created within that dwarf todays giant like Amazon, Google, Facebook etc. This is the case for Ethereum (or more of them) and even Hive.
Innovation that dwarf the current system.
I still think Hive is a great and unique innovation. We just need to push the right buttons somehow.
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Creating new money from within will likely be the narrative of the potential bull run in 2025. The key is being to able earn crypto via job listings, while at the same time bolstering network value with said work (rather than lining the bigwigs pockets). Easier said than done. I'd say we're four or five years away from that at least.