Recent price action
HIVE is currently at 10.9 cents and at a support level where its descent stopped last spring (green). HIVE/BTC (yellow) has crashed through the floor, however.
Image from coinmarketcap.com
The blue line denotes market cap and it seems to be holding much better as it always does because HIVE's inflation schedule is faster than most coins.
A handful of successful apps
Hive has a handful of successful second layer apps. Splinterlands and LeoFinance come to mind first. There are some smaller and newer ones such as dCity that some people seem to be playing. What separates the successful ones from the rest is clear and detailed plans, constant development and measurement of progress.
Content creation with base layer rewards is failing to capture value
Hive's predecessor which Hive is a fork Steem of introduced crypto rewards for blogging in the platform's native token. It's still an interesting idea. But when the completely unprofessional manner in which content creation was treated only as a token distribution mechanism with no attention paid to how it could be harnessed to capture value is embarrassing. There is a big difference between the way this is handled on LeoFinance and the way this aspect of content creation has been totally neglected on the base layer ever since the days Steemit was the only app on Steem.
There's four years worth of content on stored on Hive and the front ends and it is capturing zero value. At one point there was quite a bit of traffic and that's when steemit.com's Alexa rank was 4000th. At that point, Steemit, Inc should've been accumulating a war chest to get through the bad times and paying attention to capitalizing on the high Alexa rank through an advertising model. There was a lot of opposition that idea until it was adopted in November 2019 out of sheer necessity by Steemit, Inc's managing director Eli Powell as the company was deep in the red. For the longest time, dogmatic opposition to ads had been prevalent among the user base as well. Ads did make a small difference along with cost cutting measures at Steemit, Inc.
Advertising is ultimately the way all the content will monetized for the most part. In the beginning growth is key, not revenue, though. But so far we haven't seen much of either.
Apart from Twitter spamming there is no serious attempt at increasing the reach or relevance of the content
It would be useful to know how effective sharing the posts on Twitter is. No consistent reporting has caught my eye. I'm glad if such efforts exist but there are none that I've heard of. The campaign has resulted in at least one large account being banned permanently from Twitter. I accidentally stumbled on Dan's comment that tweets with a link to a Hive post get shadowbanned on Twitter. No wonder my posts when I've shared them haven't had any comments or likes in recent times.
One of the biggest problems these otherwise laudable - simply because they finally exist in the first place - to make the platform better known is the lack of metrics used to follow progress and change course if necessary. There is little in the way of feedback.
The second layer is taking the lead
As far as I can tell, LeoFinance is tackling every single one of the fundamental issues I've mentioned here and many more. I listened to the latest LEO Roundtable Podcast. I think the founders of LeoFinance have it together. They seem to be thinking about the right things. The roadmap makes sense and it's getting implemented at a breathtaking pace.
Development at the base layer is focused on base layer issues
Hive developers are busy upgrading the base layer as they should be. Hard Fork 24 is done except for tying up a few loose ends. I heard Khal say in the roundtable that he heard from some Hive devs that the poor documentation of some APIs is causing problems. They haven't been all fixed, yet.
The Smart Media Token (SMT) protocol will make the second layer trustless
Scot bot is the one server that handles all the second layer token transactions on Hive. They're controlled by a single entity. If there was a decentralized network instead of a single server no SMTs would necessarily be needed. I wonder how much investment in the liquidity pools apart from Hive users willing to provide liquidity out of their other cryptos we will see until the second layer is decentralized. How much will investors care?
HIVE relegated to being strictly a utility token?
We're already seeing a slow drift downwards in the price of HIVE both in fiat and satoshi terms as well as its market cap ranking among other coins going down. Since HIVE was never designed to be a store of value coin as opposed to a utility coin deriving its value from all the activity on chain, growth will be required for it to grow in value and see positive price action. A handful of successful applications won't cut it unless they grow really big. All eyes are on LeoFinance and Splinterlands.
Has HIVE been systematically marketed to developers?
DApp developers are the people Hive should be marketed to. Not end users who should be the targets of marketing by DApps instead. Is there a corner of the Internet where a lot of DApp developers hang out?
Should content rewards paid out in HIVE be done away with?
This is a hotly contended issue. The second layer should be ready to take the base layer's place in rewarding users first. When would the second layer ready to do that? The following things should be in place:
- SMTs or decentralized Hive Engine (Scot bot replaced by a decentralized network)
- a fully developed set of tools to deploy wrapped tokens on Ethereum and other chains to make use of liquidity pools on DEXs like Uniswap - requiring no coding
I may have forgotten something. But that short list gives you an idea, which is that to thrive Hive needs A LOT of apps with tokens having access to as much liquidity as possible. There need to be hundreds of apps that generate serious attention for HIVE to continue to appreciate. Even its speculative value is tied to development taking place.
The key is reusable tools. @khaleelkhazi who is the founder of LeoFinance is also its lead developer. People who have both leadership skills and developer skills are in short supply. In the best possible case, for communities where there is vision and drive but no coders available, the availability of reusable tools can make a huge difference. Since all the projects on Hive are joined at the hip because they share the same base layer, a degree of collaboration by paying attention to the reusability of the tools developed is imporant.
If HIVE dips significantly below 10 cents and stays there for a long time, HIVE rewards will turn into a long-term investment as opposed to an asset for speculative investment. That will put off those content creators who use at least some of their rewards to live on. I'm a bit worried about those content creators who do not yet have thriving second layer app like LeoFinance for their content.
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I tend to agree. The content here is a product. This same product generates revenue everywhere else. You mentioned revenue generated through advertising. Over the past few years this product(content) also generates revenue in the form of donations or tips. Consumers now are dishing out millions annually in that fashion. The money comes directly from the consumer's wallet, falls neatly into the creator's wallet, with a middleman taking a hefty percentage. For instance Youtube will take a 30% cut, Twitch takes a 50% cut. The current going rate is rather high. Meanwhile Hive offers the consumer and creator a far better deal. Staking Hive and donating or tipping through votes cuts out that middleman completely. Consumer can even have their money back if they so choose. Creators can setup solid revenue streams rather than depending on sporadic donations.
So when Hive started up and people went on their onboarding binge, I started to cringe because no focus was placed onboarding paying consumers. It went straight back to Steem's biggest folly which was attempting to attract amateurs with the promise of getting paid. So here we are filling our shelves with this product, and not opening the doors to any customers. Those customers become the investors under this business model. They're typically loyal and will gladly throw their money away on other platforms. They also do all of the heavy lifting when it comes to content distribution, by sharing links across social media feeds, simply because they liked something and share buttons are easy to push. Of course spamming twitter is the wrong way to go about spreading content. That's usually left up to the people who actually enjoyed it and want others to see.
Any dapp, now and into the future, depends on consumers and their money. Onboarding those types should be at least some of the focus. Those consumers should be the ones out there asking their favorite content creators to come over here so everyone can stop getting ripped off by those greedy middlemen as well. Right now, those consumers have no clue they're being ripped off. They have no clue there's a better deal out there, known as Hive.
All your points are valid. But I'd like to add that the most important group may be those people who never interact with the chain but just read.
By the way, my daughter just told me that there is a content creator fund on Tik Tok. But that some content creators have complained that when they've participated in being rewarded from it, they've see their viewcounts drop. That's just the kind of shenanigans all those centralized Web 2.0 platforms pull all the time.
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Those are called consumers, my friend. Nothing wrong with attracting every breed of consumer. Wouldn't things be interesting if those particular consumers who cannot interact with the chain could still be interacted with. On a second layer, maybe they can comment, and perhaps I could upvote those comments, but they cannot claim any sort of reward until there's a wallet, with Hive power/RC connected to it, purchased by the consumer.
Perhaps DApps could have guest accounts in store for visitors to use for dropping a quick comment. Guest commentators could register quickly with their email address or Web 2.0 identity to be able to claim their rewards later.
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Yup. So there's the market of consumers willing to pay, then there's a market that needs a bit of persuasion. Both are equally valuable and worth tapping in to.
I do agree with nonameslefttouse, there are some people that use Hive as a means/method of entertainment, I am one of them. The marketing to Dapp developers should be done, where else can a software developer get access to a community and group of people willing to try and to test and to give feedback on their product. I give some feedback to applications, a lot of people give feedback to application developers on Hive. That is or should be a selling point to developers.
If the everyday user like me has no reason to visit because all the content creators have been driven away, there there will be a very small pool of instant ready beta testers for developers. A balance, A "true balance" needs to be built so that there is room for everyone. Weigh it to much toward the investor, then their will be nothing to invest in, to far to the developer side for the speed and ease then there will be not testers for them, no reason to watch/listen then content creators languish with no audience.
The past history of steem is now steem's past history, Hive's history began with HF 24, now is not the time to begin repeating the mistakes of steem, let's learn from their history. From my point of view as just a user of both Hive and Steem, balance has never been achieved, we have a chance now, prior to HF 25, we need to set clear defined goals of where we are and where we want to take HIVE.
Just the opinion of a non developer, a non investor, a non blogger, a non entertainer, just a guy who likes to surf Hive, post socially on occasion, and comment on the content.
!ENGAGE 25
ENGAGEtokens.I think HIVE the way its structured now is basically cryptos longest and most obscure airdrop, it's done what it needed to do, which was gain users attention and a user base of investors but now it's time to move on.
Since these changes don't affect many people in the grand scheme of things I say keep deploying HIVE upgrades that give tribes and layer 2 more autonomy and power to do what they want, let HIVE be a liquidity pool to move value between them and tap into resources.
SMT and RC pools I feel like everyone has been waiting for, for ages, think once we have that we can bring in more dapps and users and really make a go of it, I think its also a great opportunity now for the likes of LEO, Actifit and such to grab HIVE so they have the resources to scale their dapp going forward
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Crypto's longest and most obscure airdrop is a pretty apt summary of it.
I wonder whether SMTs or RC pools should have priority. But I can't stress enough the necessity of providing ready-to-use tools for those communities that have no developer resources to tap into the potentially massive liquidity on DeFi chains and other tools to help them get off to a flying start.
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For Ethereum, it will be ready before 10th November 2020, probably this week after the LEO team finishes their review.
Code is ready for review on GitHub:
Support for Binance Smart Chain (BSC) coming soon.
^^
||
Why is that guy not president? ;)
Go to @fbslo's profile at
https://peakd.com/@fbslo
Approving his witness his easy by clicking the button where it reads "APPROVED WITNESS" in the image. Do that on all your accounts if you have alts.
https://peakd.com/hive-139531/@someguy123/how-to-set-up-a-hive-witness-or-seed-node-non-mira-upgrade-from-steem-docker-to-hive-docker
Social/content creation and development/dapps go hand and hand. All the development and projects were able to organize and fund themselves thanks to social.
Social didn't fail to attract investors...we scared them all off. We had lots of excitement that died down a bit due to the bear market, but enough of it stuck around BECAUSE OF social/content creation. Then the bid-bots made the whole thing feel like a scam and so everyone left and who was holding out during the bear market left...and then came the Sun drama which cut everything in half one more time (though I think long term, we will be better because of it).
If there were a quick solution and we could have Hive.blog and everything connected to it turned into a 2nd layer platform in 3-6 months, then maybe? If it's going to take a year or two and be built by a centralized team, you are basically digging a grave for Hive. The time to talk about this was 4 years ago, or at the very least before we forked. We don't get another 2 years to fuck around, trying to be anything and everything.
If we can get 100k users and keep them here we'll be ok as long as we can keep scaling. If you can build a layer beneath the existing first layer and move everything over seamlessly, then I think this is something we might want to talk about. Those 100k users are going to provide you with the resources and excitement to make it work, and they will come for social, not for development because anyone who doesn't see the perks to developing on Hive won't come over if you put social at risk, and the people who don't see the value of social...well they probably just got scared off when we spent a year as a bid-bot ponzi scheme and lost interest. So let's get it back.
Totally agree with you on Twitter, which is why I'm starting a contest to encourage coordinated youtube commenting
I think the chain can survive a much lower price than even this because it's so cheap to run. It's the business of the DApps to attract the users. Eventually demand for HIVE will come from the DApp owner's or other large second layer token holders' need to take part in chain governance.
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A good read this, cheers 👍🏾
Thanks and thanks for the reblogging. Edited to correct a couple of incongruent sentences and typos.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
And to make things worse, even some core functionalities after HF24 were not restored so that frontends like peakd still are buggy (comments are not numbered correctly, upvotes are not showing right away...) and hivestats is useless. This is, 3 weeks after the HF, quite concerning. I was not expecting big improvements from the HF, but worse performance, really?
I'm sure those issues will eventually be resolved. It's already better now. On Chrome LeoFinance works just fine. Too bad that on Brave it does not. I don't see the comments or the wallet page properly.
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The time tested and apparently best model of content creation and rewards is YouTube. The content is monetized for ever. Sad people here were to adamant to not even borrow the smallest bit from the successful ideas already working.
YouTube's fundamental problem is that it is centralized. This makes it possible for the owners of the platform to ban, censor, demonetize and shadowban, which they certainly do with abandon these days. Many a content creator has lost his/her livelihood as a result of this. YouTube also takes quite large a cut from the earnings of a content creator. Also, to be monetized a channel has to meet pretty harsh conditions as in a minimum of 4000 hours of videos played in total and 1000 subscribers.
However, perpetual ad revenue for content creators is a pretty solid idea. On LeoFinance, ad revenue earned by the front end is used to buy back the tokens from the market and to burn them. The business model of LeoFinance makes total sense, which is why I think the platform will be successful.
Oh yes I know and agree with YT's issues. I am just saying that an ad supported monetization scheme that pays perpetual rewards has been a winning combo so far.
I couldn't agree with you more on that.
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People are spending a lot of time thinking about the internal dynamics of Hive. But tbh, to some extent I think we just have to accept that Hive will rise significantly along with everything else when the bull run properly kicks into gear. Still so much correlation in the market as a whole.
We'll probably look back at this price as a blessing this time next year. Hive will be up (along with everything else - good coins and shitcoins.
That being said, focusing specifically on Hive, I'm a big fan of deflationary effects. Some kind of burn mechanism, driven by advertising or something else, would be cool. There needs to be plenty of reasons to HODL HP as well.
You're probably right. But what percentage of coins went up in each market cap range during the last bull run should be studied in more detail.
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I have been thinking this way for months now since we have the communities/Hive-Engine tokens. HIVE is the underlying technology for dapps to build on with the 3 seconds, feeless transactions then it is up to Dapps to have a target audience and bring in the users.
Moving away from HIVE as rewards pool was something I was against in the first place but I'm starting to warm to the idea after seeing the success of dapps like LEO with a clear vision, roadmap, announcements... this is how it should be really - "tokenised communities" or whatever you want to call it. Specific content being specifically rewarded with a specific token.
Right now, earning HIVE rewards is effectively a way of distributing the token (albeit in a slightly unusual way) but after all the creases are ironed out with HF 24, we'll see a move towards HIVE being in the background with RCs being the main appeal of holding HIVE Power, at least that's my view. Blocktrades latest post implies that Hard Forks may not be needed again with all these changes on the back end and so that will reduce the need for exchanges to update wallets and freezing deposit/withdrawals.
I'll stop the ramble now!
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I'd give it a 6-10 months. The second layer is starting to look promising. When the creative communities that may or may not have developer resources at their disposal can build liquidity pools on Ethereum and elsewhere with easy-to-use tools requiring no coding (@fbslo is already done with Ethereum, he's going to do Binance chain next), they too will be able to properly monetize their communities.
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I do like the optimism around the creative communities too and I am hopeful with Creative Coin that that will be happening with time - a lot can happen in 6-10 months, that's like 5 normal years the speed crypto moves at haha! It will be great to see the creative community thriving though, looking forward to seeing how things pan out!
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Time to buy Hive!
I bought some with my HBD via conversion.
Considering whether to make a bigger purchase.
Sure, it's better to get it cheap! I hope the lackluster price action turns for the better come next bull market top. I just made a post about how the order in which altcoins pop has nothing to do with their market cap ranks as I first thought. We can't rely on a cascade of speculation reaching HIVE during the topping out process of the whole market.
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Relax, price will recover I saw this coming months ago, Hive is not even a year old there still time
See at 5 cents soon
I suspect that, too. When Ether was rejected below $400, all of the alts started to correct. Hive is doing somewhat worse than the rest.
Its a joke..
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