I think that running an SPS validator node is going to offer one of the best returns in the @Splinterlands ecosystem over the next few years....
Hell, they may even pay for the cost of running the server(s).
I say 'may' because there are a lot of variables at work that will determine your return on running an SPS validator node namely...
- The cost of buying the node licence in the first place
- The price of SPS
- The price of VOUCHER
- How many nodes are running (the rewards are shared)
- What your node rank is (the T20 earn a lot more - but I'm ignoring this here!)
- The cost of running the server (NB I'm excluding this here too, maybe not the best idea).
You can find out details of the node licence pre-sale and tranche sales in this post here, and all stats below are based on this post!
Initial costs....
The nodes are being sold in presale and then tranches which gradually get more expensive....
Let's just rule out everything after tranche 1 as I think at current SPS and VOUCHER prices these seem a little steep, this means the total cost of a node...
- at presale is $1000 plus $500 in Voucher (Voucher is currently around $2) = $1500
- in tranche one let's just take the cost to be $3000 and assume markets will make VOUCHER worth as much as the 50% discount they give.
So that's our costing, for now I'm going to assume anything else is too much of a punt at current prices in what looks like a bear market!
Rewards...
Assuming you run a node (presumably with a certain amount of up time) you will be get a share of 3, 375, 000 SPS a month
IF you get into the T50-100 (numbers yet to be clarified) you will also get a further share of 375 000 SPS a month, with the T20 getting proportionality more. I'm playing WCS and assuming we don't make it into the T100.
So your SPS rewards depend on how many nodes are being run. Based on my assumption that no ones going to buy (yet) into trance two, we'll have a maximum of 5000 NODES running (NB that sounds like a lot!)
If that's the case then the returns are
3 375 000/ 5000 = 675 SPS a month or 8100 SPS a year.
But that's not all... we also get 20K VOUCHER a day.....
20 000/ 5000 = 4 VOUCHER a day or 1460 VOUCHER a year.
So with 5000 NODES running your one node will get you...
- 8100 SPS a year
- 1460 VOUCHER a year
Now. if we assume an SPS price of $0.10 and VOUCHER at $2 then that's an annual return of..... $3730 over the year.
IF you bought presale for around $1500 - that's break even after around 5 months.
If you bought during tranche one that's break even after around 10 months.
Of course prices can vary...
I could imagine Voucher going down to $1, which it could (I can imagine a lot of selling going on when these nodes go live especially!)
I can also see SPS drifting down again to $0.07 possibly.
But even at those prices if they both drop you're still breaking even after just over a year with a presale purchase
Final thoughts for me this is like locking in the best return on SPS
If you stake SPS you currently get around a 50% return in SPS and VOUCHER, so even if you buy in tranche one assuming prices remain stable you are getting a better return.
And of course if prices of the tokens drop, your staking return will drop too, meaning node licenses (once operational) are still going to offer a better return!
AND all of this assumes you're not getting into the T20.
Finally, the pegging of licenses to dollar value puts a break on how many people will buy them if SPS falls, so it's something of a buffer against your SPS rewards dropping too hard as people are less likely to buy up in tranches 2 3 and 4 if SPS is still dropping, meaning there is a level of protection if you're running a node on your return that you don't get with staking SPS - it's rational to just STAKE with a declining value-asset until things turn around...
Hmmm yes for me, buying a node license is a good move!
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Not that it matters now since presale is over but its 500 $2 vouchers, not $500 worth of vouchers. So presale was about $2000. Still a deal.
I tend to not look at any of this in terms of USD but instead of SPS.
If right now I bought one in pure SPS it would cost 31k SPS. Sure, that's $3000 now but lets say SPS goes up to $1, I'm getting my $8100 per year now, its hard to say that's a profit because now its effectively like I paid $31k for the license since I could have still had that 31k SPS.
So for me its all about how long will it take to replace the SPS I spent? If I spend 31000 SPS and I'm getting 8100 sps per year, that means its 4 years to replace my initial SPS cost. Vouchers change that math considerably in our favor since at if 5000 licenses sell like in your example and we're getting 4 vouchers per day, it would take just 125 days to replace your vouchers and that 31k SPS becomes 16500 which is much easier to replace. You could even sell the vouchers beyond those 125 days and use it to buy more SPS to hurry the replacement up.
It's all pretty interesting. I was expecting a bit more of a bump in SPS price than we got. I think I'm going to wait until Rift Watchers comes out to buy and hope we stay in tranche 1. That should push SPS up a bit and I'll have longer to collect interest on my stake. Plus I don't think they'll be functional before then.
!PGM
I just look at the APY, but I take your point, what to use as the base line is a tricky one.
The main reason i bought these is scarcity - there's very few of them for quite a lot of SPS, a better ratio than staking the SPS.
Also, if SPS goes up that high then more node licences would sell probably, pushing the price up so I could just offload one.
Ultimately I don't think you can lose with whatever SL assets, just not gain as much!
I like the point about scarcity in comparison to SPS itself. Overall I think these are a good value no matter what but I think we're going to be able to buy for under 20k SPS at some point so I'm holding out. I really expected SPS to move high enough on the launch to get it around 10k. Maybe I'm dreaming. !LOL
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The problem with SPS is that...
There is an absolute fuck tonne of the stuff!
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I think that is smart to assume that you aren't going to make it into the top 20. I have a feeling those spots are going to be held by the people with more name recognition. It will be the names we typically see at the top of the feed and things like that. People will be people, not a complaint, just an observation :)
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Oh I've got fuck all chance of making it T100 let alone T50 - between the T20 faces, the SL team, a handful of megawhales and of course... guilds - NO CHANCE!
But even without those rewards.. $4K a month.
Yeah, I hear you. It's going to be tough. $4k per month? Is that based on the current price of SPS? I couldn't really justify scraping the money together to try and get one. Plus I don't really have the hardware available to run it.
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I meant per year!
I'm not sure what hardware it will require, I think I can just about cope with it, if not it's renting server space if it's worth it.
Ah, okay. $4k a month I was considering pimping out my wife to scrape the funds together!
Talking about returns with no charts or historical gains... okay then...
Well I guess i'm talking about yield only here.
Yeah all is well, just not my cup of tea to buy virtual real estate.
I wanted to get my hands on one of these and the first presale already is done with. Now we are already into $3,000 worth of SPS. I just can't bring myself to let go of $3,000 worth of SPS when SPS is just $0.11 lol that's the big struggles I have at the moment as I feel SPS is well undervalued moving into Q3-Q4 of this year. That means no validator for me most likely but some very high valued SPS and vouchers!
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For me it's bang on worth it - those nodes are SPS printing machines, more so with Voucher.
that was an amazingly smooth presale. All sold in 11 mins. impressive
And churning through tranche 1 quicker than I'd expected too!
interesting premises, but the Riftwatchers are coming soon, and even more SPS will be used, plus, all the SPS burned and the Vouchers burned. We will see, certainly the future look promising.
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STOPI was a little surprised by how many wanted at least one license.
It may be as lucrative as you say to operate a node, or even to lend a license to someone else, but I felt going for one would make me chase too many rabbits and catch none. So I remained focused on my goals, which include staking more SPS.
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They are expensive, but staking SPS has a great return for now!
It was tempting. But the decision (to not participate) ultimate came down to these:
I actually got rid of the tiny amount of vouchers I had to help support people who wanted it for the pre-sale.
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There's a lot of factors to consider - but if SL succeeds I think these nodes should outperform everything else... the team keep saying they are going to drive value towards SPS, and these basically print that (and voucher).
Apparently there are people planning on setting up node-delegation pools - you delegate them your node and they run it for you for a cut!
Whatever you buy in SL it's a win I think!
I'm also kind of betting that SL will outperform Hive too!
I foolishly missed the presale (I did intend on purchasing) now I'm stuck deciding if I purchase now or wait to see if SPS price rises to help offset SPS needed to purchase a license. I assume you purchased one, has the rewards for owning one already started being dropped?
I don't have the SPS to take advantage of the pre-sale. Thanks for sharing.