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RE: Israel's covid deaths in 2021 vs excess mortality: An analysis

in COVID-193 years ago

The raw/excess death numbers come from the Israeli BoS.
Unfortunately there have been excess deaths in both years (you can get a glimpse of it in the 4th graph), mostly driven by dying 70+ year old males and somewhat by 70+ females. Incidentally, they are something like 80-90% of all deaths anyway, so it makes sense that their loss has more effect on the overall situation than any number of 20, 30, 40 year olds dying.

Having said that, there hasn't been a mass extinction event or anything similar, but there has been an uptick. 2021 more so than 2020.

Most importantly though, I've been scouring the internet for births/fertility data for months! If you find anything for 2021 please let me know!

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Here are the raw numbers
Deaths: https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/publications/doclib/2021/yarhon1021/c2.pdf
Births: https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/publications/doclib/2021/yarhon1021/c1.pdf

Looking at the raw death numbers there was an increase of about 2000 per year from 2018 to 2019 and the same from 2019 to 2020 and slightly higher for 2020 to 2021. Which is to be expected with population growth, especially in aged demographics.

I'd say these rates are pretty much on trend. Now you can manipulate statistics to show whatever you want but the raw numbers do not show a clear excess deaths in 2020 and 2021.

And frankly, unless the effect is quite obvious from the raw numbers it is insignificant.

In contrast with births (which should increase over time) there was a significant drop in 2020 and a slight improvement in 2021 but still a reversal of the trend.

!!!! This is excellent! A goldmine of data that I've been desperately trying to find.
I want to make 500 sock accounts to like your response! (Just kidding, of course)

The number of what is "significant" is an interesting discussion in itself.
If you ask me - was it worth restructuring society, sending the population into a spiral of depression, insecurity, debt and mental/physical health issues in order to "save" us from corona? Hell no!

However, some folks on the pro-narrative side put disproportionate weight on covid deaths, which I find insane - so say, if the country as a whole has to suffer "slightly" (they downplay the dangers of what's happening) in order to save those aforementioned 2000, then so be it. So for them, even if excess death was 1000 or 500, they will justify any corona measures.

It's an unwinnable argument - if covid deaths are high, they say that this proves that covid is serious (and we need to use harsher measures). If covid deaths are low, they say that this proves that the measures worked and we saved a lot of lives.

Anyway, I'm rambling. Tons of thanks, maybe I'll sticky the births/deaths or make a separate post, depending on how much information there is on the topic.

I've been following these raw numbers for years on the births side. Israel's birthrate is extraordinary. The only first world country with fertility above replacement level and Israel is almost 50% higher than replacement.
I hope COVID idiocy hasn't F'ed it up.