So I woke up late this morning and had actually forgotten about the American election until I checked the BTC price at around 10.00, which kind of told me the result!
And it turns out that Trump by now has won pretty decisively....
i'm sure this result is something of a shock for many in the US, especially the magnitude of the victory, it looks like the Republicans are going to get full legislative powers by taking control of both houses...
It's easy to be detached from the result here in the UK, but we are still reflecting on what all of this means for us... and TBH the most sensible analysis seems to be that we are not that sure!
Making America Great Again....?
TBH I'm not sure HOW Trump is going to do this?
One of his pledges is border control, so i guess that's one thing, but I'm not 100% convinced that high immigration has a negative impact on the US economy.
Protectionism may well be on the cards, imposing tariffs on imports for example, but that will likely just lead to a trade war.
There's obviously going to be very little scope for public investment, the republican party more generally wouldn't allow this, if anything I'm expecting deregulation and tax cuts, neither of which are likely to help the average American very much in the longer run, neoliberalism just makes it easier for the rich to extract from the poor.
The Elon Musk Factor...
I'm very uncomfortable with this..... the fact that Musk controls X and him and Trump are best buddies, I can see massive censorship by algorithmic stealth setting the agenda rightward on that platform at least.
Pity women's rights...
I really do.... I mean there's now going to be more states passing anti-abortion laws, which means more women with unwanted babies, probably with less state funding to support them, so here we have at least 5 years of more unwanted babies growing up in the worst of conditions.
Relations with Europe....
It's likely Trump will cut funding to Ukraine, that's going to be a huge blow and will give Putin a boost, but does Trump give a toss? He certainly doesn't seem to, and that's going to put more pressure on Europe to fund Ukraine's defence, although maybe that is fair enough.
I guess the truth is America doesn't really see Europe as a priority, it's more focused on Asia.
Final thoughts... more disruption incoming...
I think people voted for Trump because they just wanted something DIFFERENT. They've had 5 years of decline, but that's due to Covid and a global slowdown, it's unlikely that Trump can do anything to reverse this... Neoliberal slash policies aren't going to sort out a cool global economy.
And one thing that's certain is that there's more uncertainty with Trump in power, there is less clarity over what he is actually going to do given that his election campaign was about personality rather than policy.
So there will be more uncertainty, more disruption, but at the end of the day, America's on the descent, so whatever Trump does, it's probably going to change very little in global terms!
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I think any uncontrolled immigration will have a negative impact on any economy. look at the cost the tax payers are having to pay for the hotels, free healthcare and extras given to the illegals. Not only economically but the numbers are changing how people lead their lives on so many levels. One just has to look at the UK to see this is never going to end well.
It does need a solution - a global one IMO!
Yes a global one has to be the answer. Where do those who will be deported out of the USA go next as it will be Europe. The UK and it's people cannot afford this and it has to end or something is going to break. I am deeply concerned for my family and the British people in the UK.
The Trump presidency..
Hopefully the ocean is enough of a buffer for us!
Doubtful. But good luck.
His overall protectionist policies will probably be a bad thing, although the fact he's quiet an anglophile might turn out in our favour if we're nice to him...
Tell that to the border states!
The problem here is, just as many women voted anti-abortion. Not a small number either, with 40% of white women and only a 10 point gap overall between the two parties. I think it's too general to say 'poor women' when so many voted against democrats Even latino women went to Trump's side in significant numbers.
I suspect not that many people consider abortion a major issue. At least not as much as we think.
I don't think it's clear this so clear as good and bad. If we're talking about reducing overall suffering - this is a good decision (if even possible) 700,000 russians have died needlessly. Likely same in Ukraine.
If giving the entirety of Ukraine to Russia to take it all back, a lot of people probably would be ok with it.
I think it's a lot deeper than that, based on my rummagings over the last couple of weeks. There's a lot of valid reasons to go Trump, really.
At the end of the day everything is now more uncertain- and that's difficult to prep for!
10 states had votes on it and in 7 they voted for abortion rights. Not great but looks like better than it was few months ago.
I am actually looking forward to see what and if will Mask do anything to cut the government spending. i feel most countries have the same situation as we do and the amount of bureaucrats sitting around doing nothing, and the amount of money "leaked" with no auditing is just crazy. for our small country of ~ 6.000.000 people in 2000 we had 17 ministries now we have 30.
as someone who was a kid when neighbors started killing each other because someone told them the other side hates them (lucky to not be in the middle of it) and after that had NATO dropping bombs (with no UN approval), few pretty close to me (3-5km, several tons make your house shake) ending that war today would be the best that could happen. i know it sounds unacceptable for a lot of Ukrainians and i fully understand them.
I have a feeling that there is a 50:50 with Tramp considering the world (because he is pretty crazy). 50% that all hell breaks loose, 50% that there will be less people killing each other in the world. With the last administration it would continue as it is at the moment, there is to much money in wars.
One thing is certain - there is now more uncertainty!
If they make America much better than today, what will the rest of the world be? 🙂