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RE: @haejin still raping the reward pool! @ned WHEN ARE YOU GOING TO ADDRESS THIS ISSUE??

in #steem7 years ago

If you agree that psychology isn't completely random and/or agree that self-fulfilling prophecy, by way of a sufficient volume of people basing their investment decisions on a similar belief (in this case: price pattern or "signal"), is something that can, and sometimes does happen, then you can't completely reject the claim that there is real value in analyzing chart patterns.

Hardly anything in this world is black or white, as much as the purely rational minded would prefer it not to be so. Regarding empirical based knowledge, at best, we can rate things (hypothesis or what-have-you) along a "spectrum of proof" and nothing has ever, or will ever, hit either extreme (if only because we can't prove that we even exist in the first place).

You're painting technical analysis (TA) as if it's pure black (provably bogus), but, statistically speaking, there ARE relatively strong correlations within the practice of TA that demonstrate statistical significance in predicting future price performance (compared to randomly assigning a guess as to whether price will move up or down), so, if anything, it's more on the white side of the spectrum, if not high up that spectrum.

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i often check heajin posts and astrology charts.

both are accurate.

It's clear to me that you're either biased or ignorant on this topic.

At first glance, TA might look like a lot of attempts at practicing voodoo on price or simply letting one's own inner child out to play around with crayons on a price chart, but I assure you there's ample data to prove to a high degree of certainty (as the sample pool is rather large at this point in time) that it's not all bogus.

There are favorable odds attached to trading certain re-occurring patterns within the markets (eg "ascending triangles", "falling wedges", etc), when using their traditional trading rules. They only work out to somewhere between 55 and 60% favorable, but that is actually quite significant when compared to simply tossing a coin and choosing whether to take a trade or not based on the outcome.

Theories as to why these patterns play out? They're abound. It seems reasonable to me that human psychology isn't completely random. Assuming that's true, humans can't react randomly to price -- there should be at least a little bit of predictability in how each individual and, therefore, the market, reacts to any given set of circumstances. If that's true, then real patterns will play out based on their reactions. That's what we see when we analyze price charts.

 7 years ago  Reveal Comment

You're a funny guy @introvertspeaks, but you're a lousy troll ;)

I guess it comes down to one simple concept here: you have one opinion, I another.

Best of luck to you.