BTC/USD chart from Bitfinex for the last day shows a significant recovery - is it due to BIP 91 signalling? - Chart Source: BitcoinWisdom.
Introduction
Just a quick post today as I wasn't planning on posting, however I thought this issue was interesting and important enough to share.
A couple of days ago I spoke about how there was uncertainty over bitcoin due to the possibility of chain splitting if BIP 148 activated.
This may have combined with other factors to create the fall in bitcoin price.
We have seen a partial recovery over the last few days and this may be at least partly due to increasing support for BIP 91.
What is BIP 91?
BIP stands for Bitcoin Improvement Proposal and is the title (along with a number) given to proposed changes to the bitcoin blockchain.
As I understand it BIP 91 came about as part of the Segwit 2X proposal.
It is a an addition/modification to BIP 141 (the original Segwit proposal) that reduces the previous 95% miner support requirement to 80% and also reduces the period needed to signal support from 2 weeks to 56 hours.
In addition it will also prevent BIP 148 from activating and greatly reduce the risk of a chain split.
(BIP 148 is the very controversial user activated soft fork (UASF) that could potentially result in a split in the bitcoin blockchain and lead to people losing money).
Frankly the specific technical details of how BIP91 works are beyond my understanding, however there is a Coindesk article which goes into some detail about it here.
BIP 91 already has 63% support (in the last 144 blocks) out of the 80% needed according to Coindance.
(NB to activate it needs 80% miner support over 336 blocks).
If it continues to gain support over the next few days we could actually see a swifter resolution to the current crisis and a faster return to the more positive and bullish sentiment we had prior to the recent price falls.
What do you think about BIP 91? Is it responsible for the recent market recovery? Will it pass?
Let me know in the comments.
Thank you for reading
I'm still sceptical about this uphill for now. I think people will still be afraid and before the 1st of August we will see a drop again. For sure we see one this weekend because every friday/saturday we have all red.
Yes hopefully it doesn't go down again but that seems to have been the pattern.
Yeah indeed. But I really think it will go down 1 more time and go pretty low. And after the 1st of August everything will go great again. Bitcoin and Altcoins will reach all time highs after that. In December I think Bitcoin will be worth $4000 :D
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I dont think there will be a drop since the majority from the community is supporting segwit and the possibility of the chain split has been reduced too much. It is the reason the price has recovered and it will stay the same until august 1. After this it will increase more than ever.
Good read @thecryptofiend, got me to find another article that states that "Miner Support for SegWit2x Jumps to 90% Overnight". Hope that Bitcoin will finally get consensus and will scale accordingly.
Yes I hope.
Time to fly 4000 here we come!
Great post.
Upvoted!
Thank you:)
I don't really know a lot about all of this BIP :D But I'm confident that everyone will do what it must be done for the good of bitcoin's and cryptocurrencies' world. :)
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I think there is significant confidence that one of two things is going to happen.
The NY agreement, SegWit2x looks like it will be followed by a significant part of the hashrate. This will ensure there is no chain split from the UASF nodes.
There is a side that has made their intentions clear to not accept segwit and hardfork blocksize increase. I believe they will hardfork. No mater what. They will rebrand as Bitcoin Cash if they need to. Several exchanges are supporting.
SegWit is not all roses, there are some legitimate concerns with putting it on Bitcoin. It has nothing to do with the needed fixes it makes, rather how it makes them. See my post below:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@kyle.anderson/fork-christ-s-sake-bitcoin-is-going-to-fork-is-segwit-bitcoin-whose-side-should-i-be-on
Wouldn't BIP 91 prevent a fork?
A fork is what is going to happen no matter what.
The BIP 91 is going to prevent a chainsplit from the sorta conflicting segwit activation methods. And hopefully solidify the 2x part.
Through Bitcoin ABC, Bitmain, ViaBTC and several others have made it pretty cleat that they do not want segwit transactions and want to scale on chain. They will hardfork. - they will chain split away from whatever BIP 91 chain does.
OK.
what will that do to the market since every currency is linked to bitcoin? Do you think we can expect another crash?
There will be volatility.
Ohh yeah
Hashpower is going to have to make a choice, even if it is an easy one.
It is but if only a small number of people go against it does it still count? I also wonder if the naysayers will have the nerve to actually split away and go off on their own separate chain. We will have to see.
Exactly, it might be an easy choice.
I hope they do.
Check out my post, SegWit can be dangerous. It might be a willing compromise but there are still very valid arguments against SegWit. Expecially with it being advertised as a blocksize increase.
Yes in fact I have heard of some of these issues before in e.g in relation to validation.I hadn't even heard of the 51% attack issue that you mention. I don't think there is a perfect solution.
There are plenty of other ways to fix malleability problems. This is entirely a problem with the core's code.
The solution is a hardfork blocksize increase.
Of course we are not knowing all the history.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@lanzate/bitcoin-segwit-improvement-or-conspiracy
It's just a head fake... many are going to pull back into usd until aug 1st. More downfall is expected in two weeks, get your money ready people to pick up these at bargain prices 🤑
ready for STEEM dips 😈
Locked and Loaded :)
It will be interesting to see.
it will be a bumpy ride but it will be going back up very soon
I think recovery started right after Bitmain tweeted support for segwit2x. I think played a big role, because there was uncertainty in their position. Now it seems road will be smooth.
Only concern I see is whether there will be code error/bugs. If that goes well on that level, crises has been avoided and I hope we will see $3000+ btc soon.
Right - I wasn't aware of that.
I think the way bitcoin recovered from the recent crash, it has further compelled investors to invest in bitcoin which will give it an opportunity to set a new record price soon.
I am not sure about the part where 80% signalling needs to happen out of the last 144 blocks. For BIP91 to lock in 80% of 336 = 269 blocks need to signal before August 1st, 2017. As of now, 141 blocks are signalling. Here's hoping we reach the figure of 269 in the next two days. That delays fears of a chain split for another couple of months.
I never said that. Coindance has that as an indicator to show short term support which is what is confusing. I will add a note to make it clearer.
I think the recent signals have definitely helped this uptick. I thought we would see a downward spiral till next week.
I think there will likely be a period of volatility approaching Aug first.
Right before trading stops on many major exchanges.
Yes potentially a big dive.
Afterwards though. ahhhh, sweet climb to new heights hopefully!
Yes I thought it would continue until at least August the 1st. We will have to see if it will be sustained though.
Oh yes, I am still expecting a sudden twist downward again at the weekend
lol I hope not :) breakout is inevitable ;)
I do like a bit of optimism!
I think bear market made some face the reality. If july 21st is success we won't even have to wait till august 1. Just being optimistic here
Yes it is possible.
I totally agree 🙌🏼
There is no SegWit2X, no signal, its just noise, nothing concrete
Most folks have no clue what's going on, the so call non-supportable UASF is still running and there is no consensus.
This is the problem with "decentralization", the crowd is just running with the news from the loudest speaker. If you ask me what going on, the miners are just playing mind games... keep your eye on the actual data
Not sure I understand what you mean.
The announcement was SegWit2X signaling, but if you look at the pic you would realize it still UASF SegWit1X, just look at the feed coming through
Feed from where though? From what I can see it is showing that some of the peers connected to that node are signalling UASF. Could be a bug, could be an anomaly. For example when I use the getpeerinfo command I get a completely different result. The only way to know overall is to check sites like Coindance.
you can check this site http://segwit.co/ be careful with downloading anything though, you just never know, once its UASF nothing has changed.. you said it Could be a bug I thought Bitcoin was immune to those things, if not well that's interesting... I have never used Coindance but I would check it out, send me a direct link....there is a lot of noise around until I see SegWit2X i would believe it...you can also check in with the miners, and see who's going with what https://bitcoincore.org/en/segwit_adoption/ I am learning this stuff so the bug thing is abit new for me
I don't need to check there as there are multiple sites that show the same thing as CoinDance. Why use sites if you are not sure if they are trustworthy?
https://coin.dance/blocks
the segwit.co sites are legit, I just don't download anything, I just take a screen shot... I had some bad experience with crypto so I don't even trust sites even when my anti-virus says secure... i usually just screen shot those things, but thanks for the link I would check it out...sorry for the late response, just getting lunch break
You guys might find it useful :)
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@cardboard/bitcoin-segwit-activation-schedule-infographic
Cool thank you! The only thing I would query is the August 23rd date. If Bip 91 activates wouldn't it reduce the activation period to 2 days or have I misunderstood something?
looking at the trend and analysis may be yes.
Well I think this definitely has to do something with the prices going up. I do hope it keeps up because if bitcoin is doing good, steem also benefits from it, right ? :D
Yes all altcoins do:)
We'll see come Thursday/Friday. The past couple of weeks the market goes to crap on the weekend after 4 or 5 days of raises.
The weekend slump used to be quite common before the last few months.
Nice Info thank you for sharing Up&Resteem
Thank you!
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So hard to time the markets... I just hold.
Thanks for this detailed information.
You're welcome.
I was wondering about the sudden shift from dip to up. Thanks for the info. But I'm wondering if this is a temporary upward tick before august 1..
Could be - you never know for sure!
Hate to break it to you now, but the big block group just announced they are HARD FORKING BITCOIN on August 1st. https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@belerophon/the-ante-has-been-raised-bitcoin-cash-announces-aug-1-hard-fork
It's pretty much irrelevant though - those people have had very little support up until now.
Thanks for the easy read post Cryptofiend. Im a new follower and i look forward to reading more of your posts in the future.
Thank you:)
3 days ago you buy altcoins today you earn money in trading
Yes buy on the dips sell on the peaks!
Price of cryptocurrencies is easy to manipulate if you are rich. In long-term price will grow, but for short-term there could be -70% easy.
True. 70% is a lot though.
This is very good...I up voted you, Thank you!
Thanks!
I have been pretty confused about it. Your post and link helped. I also follow this guy on youtube for his technical analysis. He breaks down the BIP148 vs SegWit2x in this video. This helped make some sense of it but after today's run I am thinking about changing my BTC for fiat and just wait on the sidelines till Aug 1st.
Well BIP 91 could well activate before then.
your right but if I keep checking it daily the way I have been, I'll have a heart attack.
I'm not too knowledgeable about this 'BIP' things.
This was my first time hearing about it and by looking at how it seems like people are beginning to accept it and see it as a way to reinstate their trust into the markets, it must be a good thing.
Let's see if they get endorsed since it would definitely be better with we had 1 bitcoin entity rather than fragmented versions of it.
Thanks for the informative post @thecryptofiend
You're welcome. Hopefully it is the reason and it does succeed.
My comment here is to bookmark this post. I know very little about cryptocurrency. Learning from the post and comments here.
Once more, thanks @thecryptofiend for being a guid for me here.
:)
I think you may be correct in majore, though (despite his general belligerence) John Macaffee's comments recently may have added a bump as well. Ethereum ramped upwards a bit as well after his comments, though it is correlation, not causation.
Interesting - what did he say?
a lot of posturing and aggrandizing, but he was betting on a massive (imo ridiculous) increase to 500k USD within 3 years. hyperbolic, but certainly puts him in the "for" category.
Nice post @thecryptofiend
Thank you!
The BIP 91 is a good news therefore BTC market reacts positively as I always observe happening.
I feel the excitement now as the Aug 1st is nearing on what will happen.
Thank you for opening my eyes on that. Thanks for sharing
You're welcome:)
I think it's definitely the BIP91 potential adoption. What a time to invest in BTC or cryptos ! Anyway thanks for your post mate, clear and pertinent like always.
Thank you:)
Well, I dont know much about the technical stuff but I do think it's a cat recovery that means it'll not be permanent. Bitcoin will still fall, this is I guess as a kind of bullish trap. Until 1 August, nothing can be said with confirmation and only after that everyone can know the real trend about the bitcoin. But the majority is, Bitcoin will fall until next week.
Great work by the way @thecryptofiend .
Interesting. We will have to see I was hoping it would stabilise but it might be wishful thinking!
I think all Bitcoin groups, (Bitcoin core, Bitcoin unlimited, etc) will solve there differences with Segwit2x
Perhaps.
Oh yeah bring it on!! Btc to $50k!
:)
Still the interesting part is about to come
So no Bitcoin split!!!! Thank you crypto Jesus
Probably not but I don't think we can say 100% until the time has passed. Also we could get a split in a few months time with the HF.
Crypto currency Prices depend upon Bitcoin as bitcoin grow all currency grow now it going high slowly
Yes.
very good @thecryptofiend
@azman
https://qz.com/1035565/bitcoin-price-and-segwit-the-cryptocurrency-is-surging-because-a-hard-fork-has-been-averted/
No it's all about the guy who is going to cut off his dick if bitcoin doesn't reach 500k in three years.
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STOPThis is nice
though inverting your money is way more profitable up to 2% profit daily on your capital
https://goo.gl/kKzLej
Woow thought it was going well need my money back
BIP 91 is already locked in.
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